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Do Households Smooth Expenditure over Anticipated Income Changes? Evidence from Bonus Payments to Public Employees in Japan

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  • Hori, Masahiro
  • Shimizutani, Satoshi

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence of consumers’ reaction to an anticipated sizable change in income. Until FY2002, Japanese public employees received predictable large bonus payments three times a fiscal year (in June, December, and March), but the March bonus was abolished in FY2003. We compare the seasonal patterns of public employees’ expenditure before and after the reform of the bonus payment schedule. Contrary to the prediction of the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis (LC/PIH), we find evidence that monthly patterns of household expenditure were significantly affected by the anticipated large change in income pattern. However, at closer inspection, this excess sensitivity of expenditure is observed only for expenditure subcategories of some durability, i.e., durables and semi-durables. Thus, while the LC/PIH does not appear to hold for expenditure (which we observe here), it may still hold for consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Hori, Masahiro & Shimizutani, Satoshi, 2011. "Do Households Smooth Expenditure over Anticipated Income Changes? Evidence from Bonus Payments to Public Employees in Japan," CIS Discussion paper series 532, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:cisdps:532
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    15. Hori Masahiro & Shimizutani Satoshi, 2009. "The Response of Household Expenditure to Anticipated Income Changes: Bonus Payments and the Seasonality of Consumption in Japan," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, August.
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    2. Mien, Toh Siaw & Said, Rusmawati, 2018. "A Cross-sectional Household Analysis of Household Consumption Patterns: An Indirect Approach to Identify the Possible Factors of Personal Bankruptcy," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(3), pages 231-246.
    3. Satoshi Shimizutani, 2017. "College tuition payment and household consumption in Japan," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 265-285, March.
    4. HATTORI Takahiro & KOMURA Norihiro & UNAYAMA Takashi, 2021. "Impact of Cash Transfers on Consumption during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japanese Special Cash Payments," Discussion papers 21043, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Shazida Jan Mohd Khan* & Norehan Abdullah & Siti Hadijah Che Mat & Abu Sufian. Abu Bakar & Jamal Ali & Hussin Abdullah, 2018. "The Effectiveness of 1Malaysia People's Aid Program to the B40 Group in the Rising Cost of Living: An Exploratory Case Study in Rural District of Kedah," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, pages 958-964:6.
    6. UNAYAMA Takashi & KOMURA Norihiro & HATTORI Takahiro, 2021. "Impacts of Cash Transfers on Consumption during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japanese Special Cash Payment (Japanese)," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 21022, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life cycle/permanent income hypothesis; excess sensitivity; bonus payments; Family Income and Expenditure Survey; Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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