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Geographic poverty targeting in social protection programs: Evidence from a nationwide policy experiment

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Listed:
  • Stephen O’Connell
  • Onur Altındağ
  • and Rim Achour

Abstract

We examine how allocating a fixed social assistance budget across localities using different prioritization rules affects both beneficiary selection and program effectiveness. By simulating each rule, we estimate program effects among marginal beneficiaries—those whose assistance varies across targeting strategies. The program reduces economic deprivation, with effect sizes ranging from 0.02 to 0.21 standard deviations. There are marked differences in the demographic backgrounds and economic constraints among marginal beneficiary populations, but program effects do not change substantially across targeting arms. We document sizable geographic variation in program effects, but limited ability to predict effectiveness using data typically available to implementers.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen O’Connell & Onur Altındağ & and Rim Achour, 2024. "Geographic poverty targeting in social protection programs: Evidence from a nationwide policy experiment," HiCN Working Papers 418, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:418
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    antipoverty programs; forced displacement; lebanon.; poverty measurement; poverty targeting; refugees; social protection; unconditional cash transfers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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