IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/uunewp/2004_012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Far Out on the Yield Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Alexius, Annika

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

Data on short investments in Swedish long-term bonds as the bonds mature contains unusually rich information about the relationship between duration and the first and second moments of bond returns. We identify three different channels through which duration affects bond returns. The liquidity preference hypothesis yields a direct link between duration and returns, which however disappears once indirect effects through the variance of returns and the price of risk are taken into account. The risk premia obtained from a multivariate GARCH-M model extended to allow the variance to depend on duration are of the same size as observed excess returns. Finally, duration appears to affect the relationship between bond returns and the risk free interest rate. One additional year of duration implies that the beta-coeffcient increases by 0.66.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexius, Annika, 2004. "Far Out on the Yield Curve," Working Paper Series 2004:12, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2004_012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nek.uu.se/pdf/wp2004_12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sudipto Sarkar & Mohamed Ariff, 2002. "The effect of interest rate volatility on treasury yields," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 667-672.
    2. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Term premiums in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 529-546, December.
    3. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Tom Smith & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1999. "Ex Ante Bond Returns and the Liquidity Preference Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1153-1167, June.
    4. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    5. Frederick R. Macaulay, 1938. "Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movements of Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United States since 1856," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number maca38-1.
    6. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
    7. Hooker, Mark A., 1999. "The maturity structure of term premia with time-varying expected returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 391-407.
    8. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
    9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    10. Nilsson, Birger, 2002. "Financial Liberalization and the Changing Characteristics of Nordic Stock Returns," Working Papers 2002:4, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    11. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    12. Smoluk, H. J., 1999. "Domestic variance and international comovement bonds tests of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 247-267, March.
    13. Kjell G. Nyborg & Kristian Rydqvist & Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2002. "Bidder Behavior in Multiunit Auctions: Evidence from Swedish Treasury Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 394-424, April.
    14. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    15. Gerald R. Brown, 2000. "Duration and Risk," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 20(3), pages 337-356.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Berg, Lennart & Berger, Tommy, 2005. "The Q theory and the Swedish housing market –an empirical test," Working Paper Series 2005:19, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Seppala, Juha, 2004. "The term structure of real interest rates: theory and evidence from UK index-linked bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1509-1549, October.
    4. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
    6. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
    7. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1996. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: The UK Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 578-592, May.
    8. Couture, Cody, 2021. "Financial market effects of FOMC projections," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
    10. Byeongseon Seo, 2000. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 121, Society for Computational Economics.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-366, July.
    14. Seppälä, Juha, 2000. "The term structure of real interest rates: Theory and evidence form UK index-linked bonds," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2000, Bank of Finland.
    15. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
    16. Giovanna Paladino & Gianluca Salsecci, 1999. "Spread corrigé des risques et dynamique du taux d'intérêt à long terme : une application aux marchés allemand, américain et italien," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 140(4), pages 45-62.
    17. Stephen A. Buser & G. Andrew Karolyi & Anthony B. Sanders, "undated". "Adjusted Forward Rates as Predictors of Future Spot Rates," Research in Financial Economics 9605, Ohio State University.
    18. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 498-527, April.
    19. Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2243-2265.
    20. Chunsheng Zhou, "undated". "Stock Market Fluctuations and the Term Structure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
    21. Éric Jondeau & Roland Ricart, 1998. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir de titres publics français," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 52, pages 1-22.
    22. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    23. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2000_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Lekkos, Ilias & Milas, Costas, 2004. "Time-varying excess returns on UK government bonds: A non-linear approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 45-62, January.
    25. Andrea Carriero, 2007. "A Bayesian Framework for the Expectations Hypothesis. How to Extract Additional Information from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 591, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bond returns; duration; multivariate GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2004_012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ulrika Öjdeby (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nekuuse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.