IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/umnees/0987.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Maximum Likelihood Bunching Estimators of the ETI

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We propose a maximum likelihood method to improve the bunching approach of estimating the elasticity of taxable income (ETI), and derive estimators for several model settings such as bunching with optimization frictions, notches, and heterogeneity in the ETI. Modelling optimization frictions explicitly, our estimators fit the data of several published studies very well. In the presence of a notch, the results can differ substantially from those obtained using the polynomial approach. If there is heterogeneity in the ETI, the elasticity among those who bunch exceeds the average elasticity in the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Aronsson, Thomas & Jenderny, Katharina & Lanot, Gauthier, 2021. "Maximum Likelihood Bunching Estimators of the ETI," Umeå Economic Studies 987, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0987
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usbe.umu.se/ues/ues987.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacob A. Mortenson & Heidi R. Schramm & Andrew Whitten, 2019. "The Effects of Required Minimum Distribution Rules on Withdrawals from Traditional IRAs," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 72(3), pages 507-542, September.
    2. Sören Blomquist & Whitney K. Newey & Anil Kumar & Che-Yuan Liang, 2021. "On Bunching and Identification of the Taxable Income Elasticity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2320-2343.
    3. Jerry A. Hausman, 1980. "The Effect of Wages, Taxes, and Fixed Costs on Women's Labor Force Participation," NBER Chapters, in: Econometric Studies in Public Finance, pages 161-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bertanha, Marinho & McCallum, Andrew H. & Seegert, Nathan, 2023. "Better bunching, nicer notching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    5. Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models 2 volume set," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521478373, July.
    6. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Tore Olsen & Luigi Pistaferri, 2011. "Adjustment Costs, Firm Responses, and Micro vs. Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: Evidence from Danish Tax Records," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 749-804.
    7. Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521471626, January.
    8. Soren Blomquist & Whitney K. Newey, 2017. "The bunching estimator cannot identify the taxable income elasticity," CeMMAP working papers 40/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Weber, Caroline E., 2014. "Toward obtaining a consistent estimate of the elasticity of taxable income using difference-in-differences," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 90-103.
    10. Bastani, Spencer & Selin, Håkan, 2014. "Bunching and non-bunching at kink points of the Swedish tax schedule," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 36-49.
    11. Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 180-212, August.
    12. Feldstein, Martin, 1995. "The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the 1986 Tax Reform Act," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 551-572, June.
    13. Raj Chetty, 2009. "Sufficient Statistics for Welfare Analysis: A Bridge Between Structural and Reduced-Form Methods," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 451-488, May.
    14. Aronsson, Thomas & Jenderny, Katharina & Lanot, Gauthier, 2022. "The quality of the estimators of the ETI," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    15. Feldstein, Martin, 1995. "The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the 1986 Tax Reform Act," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 551-572, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Aronsson & Katharina Jenderny & Gauthier Lanot, 2024. "A maximum likelihood bunching estimator of the elasticity of taxable income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 200-216, January.
    2. Thoresen, Thor O. & Vattø, Trine E., 2015. "Validation of the discrete choice labor supply model by methods of the new tax responsiveness literature," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 38-53.
    3. Aronsson, Thomas & Jenderny, Katharina & Lanot, Gauthier, 2022. "The quality of the estimators of the ETI," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    4. He, Daixin & Peng, Langchuan & Wang, Xiaxin, 2021. "Understanding the elasticity of taxable income: A tale of two approaches," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    5. Neryvia Pillay Bell, 2020. "Taxpayer responsiveness to taxation: Evidence from bunching at kink points of the South African income tax schedule," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-68, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Michaël Sicsic, 2022. "Does labour income react more to income tax or means‐tested benefits reforms?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 291-319, September.
    7. Søgaard, Jakob Egholt, 2019. "Labor supply and optimization frictions: Evidence from the Danish student labor market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 125-138.
    8. Miao, Dingquan & Selin, Håkan & Söderström, Martin, 2022. "Earnings responses to even higher taxes," Working Paper Series 2022:12, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    9. Carina Neisser, 2021. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income: A Meta-Regression Analysis [The top 1% in international and historical perspective]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(640), pages 3365-3391.
    10. Massenz, Gabriella, 2023. "On the behavioral effects of tax policy," Other publications TiSEM eb44a9f7-b859-480d-b2e4-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Stuart Adam & James Browne & David Phillips & Barra Roantree, 2021. "Frictions and taxpayer responses: evidence from bunching at personal tax thresholds," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(3), pages 612-653, June.
    12. Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka, 2016. "The elasticity of taxable income and income-shifting: what is “real” and what is not?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(4), pages 640-669, August.
    13. Mavrokonstantis, Panos & Seibold, Arthur, 2022. "Bunching and Adjustment Costs: Evidence from Cypriot Tax Reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    14. Derek Messacar, 2022. "Labor Supply Responses to Income Taxation among Older Couples: Evidence from a Canadian Reform," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 10, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.
    15. Nicole Bosch & Vincent Dekker & Kristina Strohmaier, 2020. "A data-driven procedure to determine the bunching window: an application to the Netherlands," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(4), pages 951-979, August.
    16. Panos Mavrokonstantis & Arthur Seibold, 2022. "Bunching and Adjustment Costs: Evidence from Cypriot Tax Reforms," CESifo Working Paper Series 9773, CESifo.
    17. Andreas R. Kostøl & Andreas S. Myhre, 2021. "Labor Supply Responses to Learning the Tax and Benefit Schedule," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(11), pages 3733-3766, November.
    18. Soren Blomquist & Anil Kumar & Che-Yuan Liang & Whitney K. Newey, 2022. "Nonlinear Budget Set Regressions for the Random Utility Model," Working Papers 2219, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    19. Miguel Almunia & David Lopez-Rodriguez, 2019. "The elasticity of taxable income in Spain: 1999–2014," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 281-320, November.
    20. Philipp Doerrenberg & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2017. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income in the Presence of Deduction Possibilities," NBER Chapters, in: Personal Income Taxation and Household Behavior (TAPES), National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bunching Estimators; Elasticity of Taxable Income; Income Tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0987. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: David Skog (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inumuse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.