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Forecasting the Size Distribution of Financial Plants in Swedish Municipalities

Author

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  • Brännäs, Kurt

    (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

Abstract

The paper studies the forecasting of a future size distribution of plants. As a model we use an open Markov chain model for macro data. Estimation is by reparametrization instead of by inequality restrictions using single equation least squares. The estimator is studied in a small Monte Carlo experiment for short time series lengths and macro data. Well-known mobility indices and a new idea of using a truncated transition probability matrix are discussed and also studied in the Monte Carlo experiment. For the financial plants (1984-1993) we find evidence of mobility of a downsizing nature. In a one-step-ahead forecast evaluation we find some overprediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Brännäs, Kurt, 1998. "Forecasting the Size Distribution of Financial Plants in Swedish Municipalities," Umeå Economic Studies 478, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0478
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Conlisk, John, 1985. "Comparative statics for markov chains," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 139-151, October.
    2. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-1423, November.
    3. Lydia Zepeda, 1995. "Asymmetry and Nonstationarity in the Farm Size Distribution of Wisconsin Milk Producers: An Aggregate Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(4), pages 837-852.
    4. Battese, G E & Coelli, T J, 1995. "A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 325-332.
    5. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-1024, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Open Markov chain; Mobility index; Reparametrization; Least squares estimation; Plant size; Municipality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General

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