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Analyzing learning effects in the newsvendor model by probabilistic methods

Author

Listed:
  • Andersson, Jonas

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Jörnsten, Kurt

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Lillestøl, Jostein

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Ubøe, Jan

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper, we use probabilistic methods to analyze learning effects in a behavioral experiment on the newsvendor model. We argue why we should believe that suggested orders follow a multinomial logit distribution, and use the single parameter in that model to extract information on learning effects. We revisit the data, analyzed previously by Bolton et al. (2012), and show that our model predicts the pull-to-center effect in these experimental data very well.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Jonas & Jörnsten, Kurt & Lillestøl, Jostein & Ubøe, Jan, 2019. "Analyzing learning effects in the newsvendor model by probabilistic methods," Discussion Papers 2019/13, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2019_013
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2621571
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. AJ A. Bostian & Charles A. Holt & Angela M. Smith, 2008. "Newsvendor "Pull-to-Center" Effect: Adaptive Learning in a Laboratory Experiment," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 590-608, July.
    2. Filip Matêjka & Alisdair McKay, 2015. "Rational Inattention to Discrete Choices: A New Foundation for the Multinomial Logit Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 272-298, January.
    3. Gary E. Bolton & Axel Ockenfels & Ulrich W. Thonemann, 2012. "Managers and Students as Newsvendors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(12), pages 2225-2233, December.
    4. Sven B. Erlander, 2010. "Cost-Minimizing Choice Behavior in Transportation Planning," Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, number 978-3-642-11911-8, december.
    5. Smith, Tony E., 1978. "A cost-efficiency principle of spatial interaction behavior," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 313-337, December.
    6. Ubøe, Jan & Andersson, Jonas & Jörnsten, Kurt & Lillestøl, Jostein & Sandal, Leif, 2017. "Statistical testing of bounded rationality with applications to the newsvendor model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(1), pages 251-261.
    7. Qin, Yan & Wang, Ruoxuan & Vakharia, Asoo J. & Chen, Yuwen & Seref, Michelle M.H., 2011. "The newsvendor problem: Review and directions for future research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 361-374, September.
    8. Mirko Kremer & Stefan Minner & Luk N. Van Wassenhove, 2010. "Do Random Errors Explain Newsvendor Behavior?," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(4), pages 673-681, July.
    9. Andersson, Jonas & Ubøe, Jan, 2010. "Some aspects of random utility, extreme value theory and multinomial logit models," Discussion Papers 2010/1, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    10. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, November.
    11. Maurice E. Schweitzer & Gérard P. Cachon, 2000. "Decision Bias in the Newsvendor Problem with a Known Demand Distribution: Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 404-420, March.
    12. Xuanming Su, 2008. "Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 566-589, May.
    13. Anas, Alex, 1983. "Discrete choice theory, information theory and the multinomial logit and gravity models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 13-23, February.
    14. Nils Rudi & David Drake, 2014. "Observation Bias: The Impact of Demand Censoring on Newsvendor Level and Adjustment Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1334-1345, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral OR; experimental economics; bounded rationality; probabilistic methods; pull-to-center effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General

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