IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/lunewp/2018_022.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimates of the Inflation Effect of a Global Carbon Price on Consumer, Investment, Export, and Import Prices

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper considers the potential inflation effects of a global carbon price on consumer prices, investment prices, export prices, and import prices. We estimate the effects under three different scenarios. The results clearly indicate that the inflation effects in developed countries of a 100 USD/ton carbon price are small. For developing countries, the inflation effect is larger and potentially too large for it to be politically feasible to introduce a global carbon price. However, a simple adjustment of the price based on the price level in each country equalizes the inflation effects across all countries, whereby a global carbon price is more likely to be implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Fredrik N.G., 2018. "Estimates of the Inflation Effect of a Global Carbon Price on Consumer, Investment, Export, and Import Prices," Working Papers 2018:22, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2018_022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://lucris.lub.lu.se/ws/portalfiles/portal/194855397/WP18_22
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Natalia Fabra & Mar Reguant, 2014. "Pass-Through of Emissions Costs in Electricity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2872-2899, September.
    2. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2010. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 177-194.
    3. Martin L. Weitzman, 2014. "Can Negotiating a Uniform Carbon Price Help to Internalize the Global Warming Externality?," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 29-49.
    4. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 85-102, Fall.
    5. Robert S. Pindyck, 2013. "Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 860-872, September.
    6. Marcel Timmer & Abdul A. Erumban & Reitze Gouma & Bart Los & Umed Temurshoev & Gaaitzen J. de Vries & I–aki Arto & Valeria Andreoni AurŽlien Genty & Frederik Neuwahl & JosŽ M. Rueda?Cantuche & Joseph , 2012. "The World Input-Output Database (WIOD): Contents, Sources and Methods," IIDE Discussion Papers 20120401, Institue for International and Development Economics.
    7. Richard G. Newell & William A. Pizer & Daniel Raimi, 2013. "Carbon Markets 15 Years after Kyoto: Lessons Learned, New Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 123-146, Winter.
    8. Hurtado, Samuel, 2014. "DSGE models and the Lucas critique," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 12-19.
    9. Sam Meng & Mahinda Siriwardana & Judith McNeill, 2013. "The Environmental and Economic Impact of the Carbon Tax in Australia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(3), pages 313-332, March.
    10. Fatemeh Nazifi, 2016. "The pass-through rates of carbon costs on to electricity prices within the Australian National Electricity Market," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 18(1), pages 41-62, January.
    11. Richard L. Revesz & Peter H. Howard & Kenneth Arrow & Lawrence H. Goulder & Robert E. Kopp & Michael A. Livermore & Michael Oppenheimer & Thomas Sterner, 2014. "Global warming: Improve economic models of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 508(7495), pages 173-175, April.
    12. ZhongXiang Zhang, 2014. "Energy Prices, Subsidies and Resource Tax Reform in China," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(3), pages 439-454, September.
    13. Alex Y. Lo, 2012. "Carbon emissions trading in China," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 765-766, November.
    14. Oliner, Stephen D. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Sichel, Daniel, 1996. "The Lucas critique revisited assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations for investment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 291-316, January.
    15. Martin Ravallion, 2013. "Price Levels and Economic Growth: Making Sense of Revisions to Data on Real Incomes," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(4), pages 593-613, December.
    16. Bohringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2008. "Combining bottom-up and top-down," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 574-596, March.
    17. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    18. Jean-Charles Hourcade, Mark Jaccard, Chris Bataille, and Frederic Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges Introduction to the Special Issue of The Energy Journal," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-12.
    19. Pearce, David W, 1991. "The Role of Carbon Taxes in Adjusting to Global Warming," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 938-948, July.
    20. J. Farmer & Cameron Hepburn & Penny Mealy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2015. "A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 329-357, October.
    21. Cole, Matthew A., 2004. "Trade, the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve: examining the linkages," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 71-81, January.
    22. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Auke Hoekstra & Maarten Steinbuch & Geert Verbong, 2017. "Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-23, December.
    2. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2018. "How costly is a misspecified credit channel DSGE model in monetary policymaking?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 484-505.
    3. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    4. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    5. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    6. Liu, Li-Jing & Yao, Yun-Fei & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Qian, Xiang-Yan & Xu, Chun-Lei & Wei, Si-Yi & Creutzig, Felix & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Combining economic recovery with climate change mitigation: A global evaluation of financial instruments," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-453.
    7. Chatterjee, Sidharta, 2014. "Equilibrium Models of Macroeconomic Science: What to Look For in (DSGE) Models?," MPRA Paper 53893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Beltrán, Allan & Alatorre, José Eduardo & Ferrer, Jimy & Galindo, Luis Miguel, 2017. "Efectos potenciales de un impuesto al carbono sobre el producto interno bruto en los países de América Latina: estimaciones preliminares e hipotéticas a partir de un metaanálisis y una función de tran," Documentos de Proyectos 41867, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Xiao, Bowen & Fan, Ying & Guo, Xiaodan, 2021. "Dynamic interactive effect and co-design of SO2 emission tax and CO2 emission trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2018. "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 315-339.
    14. Dr. Christian Lutz & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter, 2021. "Wege zur Klimaneutralität bis 2045 – Politische Handlungsfelder," GWS Discussion Paper Series 21-4, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    15. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Buchholz Wolfgang & Heindl Peter, 2015. "Ökonomische Herausforderungen des Klimawandels," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 324-350, December.
    17. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    18. Yoshua Bengio & Prateek Gupta & Dylan Radovic & Maarten Scholl & Andrew Williams & Christian Schroeder de Witt & Tianyu Zhang & Yang Zhang, 2022. "(Private)-Retroactive Carbon Pricing [(P)ReCaP]: A Market-based Approach for Climate Finance and Risk Assessment," Papers 2205.00666, arXiv.org.
    19. Rong Wang & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Ken Caldeira, 2017. "Will the use of a carbon tax for revenue generation produce an incentive to continue carbon emissions?," Post-Print hal-03226925, HAL.
    20. Francesco Sergi, 2015. "L'histoire (faussement) naïve des modèles DSGE," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01222798, HAL.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Meng, Sam & Siriwardana, Mahinda & McNeill, Judith & Nelson, Tim, 2018. "The impact of an ETS on the Australian energy sector: An integrated CGE and electricity modelling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 213-224.
    23. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    25. Francesco Sergi, 2015. "L'histoire (faussement) naïve des modèles DSGE," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15066, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon price; inflation; consumer prices; export prices; imports prices; investment prices; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2018_022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iker Arregui Alegria (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/delunse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.