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Panel Cointegration Tests with Deterministic Trends and Structural Breaks

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Abstract

This paper proposes Lagrange multiplier (LM) based tests for the null hypothesis of no cointegration in panel data. The tests are general enough to allow for heteroskedastic and serially correlated errors, individual specific time trends, and a single structural break in both the intercept and slope of each regression, which may be located different dates for different individuals. The limiting distributions of the test statistics are derived, and are found to be standard normal and free of nuisance parameters under the null. In particular, the distributions are found to be invariant not only with respect to trend and structural break, but also with respect to the presence of stochastic regressors. A small Monte Carlo study is also conducted to investigate the small-sample properties of the tests. The results reveal that the tests have small size distortions and good power even in very small samples.

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  • Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton , David, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Tests with Deterministic Trends and Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2005:42, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2005_042
    Note: Corresponding author: Joakim Westerlund
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    File URL: http://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP05_42.pdf
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    1. Joakim Westerlund, 2006. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(1), pages 101-132, February.
    2. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
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    17. Westerlund, Joakim, 2006. "Testing for panel cointegration with a level break," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 27-33, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard G. Anderson & Hailong Qian & Robert H. Rasche, 2006. "Analysis of panel vector error correction models using maximum likelihood, the bootstrap, and canonical-correlation estimators," Working Papers 2006-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Utku ALTUNÖZ, 2019. "The Relationship between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun’s Law for Eurozone," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel Cointegration; Residual-Based Cointegration Test; Structural Break; Deterministic Trend; LM Principle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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