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A Monte Carlo Study on the Pitfalls in Determining Deterministic Components in Cointegrating Models

Author

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  • Hjelm, Göran

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

  • Johansson, Martin W

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

Abstract

In this paper we examine, by means of Monte Carlo simulation, the properties of the so called 'Pantula principle' for the simultaneous determination of rank and deterministic components in a vector error correction model. Examining the five models contained within the Johansen methodology, we find that the 'Pantula principle' is heavily biased towards choosing model 3 (unrestriced constant) when model 4 (restricted trend) is the true one. We suggest a modification that reduces this bias to an important extent

Suggested Citation

  • Hjelm, Göran & Johansson, Martin W, 2002. "A Monte Carlo Study on the Pitfalls in Determining Deterministic Components in Cointegrating Models," Working Papers 2002:3, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2002_003
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    2. Gredenhoff, Mikael & Jacobson, Tor, 2001. "Bootstrap Testing Linear Restrictions on Cointegrating Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 63-72, January.
    3. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
    4. Bent Nielsen & Anders Rahbek, 2000. "Similarity Issues in Cointegration Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(1), pages 5-22, February.
    5. Zhou, Su, 2000. "Testing Structural Hypotheses on Cointegration Relations with Small Samples," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 629-640, October.
    6. Haug, Alfred A., 1996. "Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115.
    7. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Fiscal policy in Sweden: effects of EMU criteria convergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 121-136, January.
    8. Jurgen A. Doornik & H. Peter Boswijk, 2005. "Distribution approximations for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 797-810.
    9. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
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    11. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    12. Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
    13. Pantula, Sastry G., 1989. "Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 256-271, August.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    16. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    18. Tor Jacobson, 1995. "Simulating small-sample properties of the maximum likelihood cointegration method : estimation and testing," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 96-107, Autumn.
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    2. Binner, Jane & Elger, Thomas, 2002. "The UK Personal Sector Demand for Risky Money," Working Papers 2002:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Deterministic components; Monte Carlo simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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