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What effect does gun-related violence have on the attractiveness of a residential area? The case of Stockholm, Sweden

Author

Listed:
  • Wilhelmsson, Mats

    (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology)

  • Ceccato, Vania

    (Department of Urban Planning and Environment)

  • Gerell, Manne

    (Department of Criminology, Malmö University)

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the effect of gun-related violence on housing values, controlling for the area’s crime levels and locational factors. Using the regression discontinuity design method, we can estimate the short-term effects of shootings. Findings from our analysis indicate that shootings directly affect those who are impacted by shootings and indirectly affect the environments where shootings occur. The indirect effect of shootings is momentary, as it is capitalised directly in housing values in the immediate area. The effect also appears to be relatively long-term and persistent as housing values have not returned to the price level before the shooting 100-200 days after the shooting. The capitalisation effect is higher the closer one gets to the central parts of the city. On the other hand, the capitalisation effect is not higher or lower in areas with a higher crime rate per capita.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilhelmsson, Mats & Ceccato, Vania & Gerell, Manne, 2021. "What effect does gun-related violence have on the attractiveness of a residential area? The case of Stockholm, Sweden," Working Paper Series 21/2, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2021_002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Thaler, Richard, 1978. "A note on the value of crime control: Evidence from the property market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 137-145, January.
    4. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
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    6. Han‐Suck Song & Mats Wilhelmsson, 2010. "Improved price index for condominiums," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 39-60, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2022. "What is the impact of macroprudential regulations on the Swedish housing market?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gun violence; shootings; fear; housing values; GIS; regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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