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Testing parameter constancy in stationary vector autoregressive models against continuous change

Author

Listed:
  • He, Changli

    (Dept. of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics)

  • Teräsvirta, Timo

    (Dept. of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics)

  • González, Andres

    (Dept. of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we derive a parameter constancy test of a stationary vector autoregressive model against the hypothesis that the parameters of the model change smoothly over time. A single structural break is contained in this alternative hypothesis as a special case. The test is a generalization of a single-equation test of a similar hypothesis proposed in the literature. An advantage here is that the asymptotic distribution theory is standard. The performance of the tests is compared to that of generalized Chow-tests and found satisfactory in terms of both size and power.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Changli & Teräsvirta, Timo & González, Andres, 2002. "Testing parameter constancy in stationary vector autoregressive models against continuous change," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 507, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Jul 2005.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0507
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    12. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
    13. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies: evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 363-390, May.
    2. Timo Teräsvirta & Yukai Yang, 2014. "Linearity and Misspecification Tests for Vector Smooth Transition Regression Models," CREATES Research Papers 2014-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, November.
    4. Andrés González & Hernán Rincón & Norberto Rodríguez, 2008. "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación de los bienes importados en presencia de asimetrías," Borradores de Economia 532, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Castillo, Paul & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2012. "Does the exchange rate pass-through into prices change when inflation targeting is adopted? The Peruvian case study between 1994 and 2007," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1154-1166.
    6. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices," BIS Working Papers 690, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2016. "Nonlinear Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," Borradores de Economia 930, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Andrés González & Hernán Rincóm & Norberto Rodríguez, 2008. "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación," Borradores de Economia 5089, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Hannu Koskinen, 2004. "Modelling of Structural Changes in Demand for Money Cointegration Relations," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 63-72, Autumn.
    11. Li, Dao & He, Changli, 2012. "Testing Common Nonlinear Features in Nonlinear Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 2012:7, Örebro University, School of Business.
    12. Kinnunen, Jyri, 2017. "Dynamic cross-autocorrelation in stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 162-173.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometric modelling; misspecification test; parameter stability; smooth transition; structural break;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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