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The Term Structure with Semi‐credible Targeting

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  • Heber Farnsworth
  • Richard Bass

Abstract

The Federal Reserve sets targets for interest rates which it enforces through direct market intervention. These targets are changed periodically. In this paper, we develop a term structure model in which the short rate is subject to a control which keeps it close to a target which changes from time to time. The probability of target changes is not constant in the model, but changes as a function of observables. The model performs well at explaining the shifts in the yield curve that accompany target changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Heber Farnsworth & Richard Bass, 2003. "The Term Structure with Semi‐credible Targeting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 839-865, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:839-865
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6261.00548
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    Cited by:

    1. Bai, Yizhou & Xue, Cheng, 2021. "An empirical study on the regulated Chinese agricultural commodity futures market based on skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Fan, Longzhen & Tian, Shu & Zhang, Chu, 2012. "Why are excess returns on China’s Treasury bonds so predictable? The role of the monetary system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 239-248.
    3. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "China's official rates and bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 996-1007, May.
    4. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "What Moves Bond Yields In China?," Working Paper Series 2009-9, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    5. Ning Cai & Xuewei Yang, 2021. "A Computational Approach to First Passage Problems of Reflected Hyperexponential Jump Diffusion Processes," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 216-229, January.

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