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Earthquakes and Civil War

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  • Ahlerup, Pelle

    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

Natural disasters claim thousands of lives each year and can be a heavy burden for already vulnerable societies. Are natural disasters also a cause of violent conflict? While most studies based on systematic empirical research do find this to be the case, there are also known cases where natural disasters have contributed to a de-escalation of fighting. This paper shows, theoretically and empirically, that moderate earthquakes increase the risk of civil wars, but that stronger (and therefore more rare) earthquakes instead reduce the risk of civil wars. We use an exhaustive dataset on earthquakes from 1947 to 2001 collected by seismologists. The association between earthquakes and the incidence of civil war is decomposed into two separate effects: they affect the risk that new civil wars are started and they affect the chance that existing civil wars are terminated.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahlerup, Pelle, 2009. "Earthquakes and Civil War," Working Papers in Economics 387, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0387
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/21202
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    civil war; earthquakes; natural disaster;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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