IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/cesisp/0288.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Great Export Recovery in German Manufacturing Industries, 2009/2010

Author

Listed:
  • Wagner, Joachim

    (Leuphana University Lueneburg and CESIS, Stockholm)

Abstract

This paper uses comprehensive high-quality panel data from official statistics for exporting enterprises to investigate the micro-structure of the recent export recovery in 2010 in manufacturing industries in Germany after the great recession of 2008/2009. Almost all of the increase in exports was due to positive changes of exports in firms that continue to export (i.e. at the so-called intensive margin) while the increase of exports due to export starters (at the so-called extensive margin) was tiny. It is shown that Idiosyncratic shocks to very large firms played a decisive role in shaping the export recovery. These findings are remarkably symmetric to the results from an analysis of the great export collapse of 2008/09.

Suggested Citation

  • Wagner, Joachim, 2012. "The Great Export Recovery in German Manufacturing Industries, 2009/2010," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 288, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0288
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://static.sys.kth.se/itm/wp/cesis/cesiswp288.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen J. Redding, 2011. "Theories of Heterogeneous Firms and Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 77-105, September.
    2. Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2011. "Rank - 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, January.
    3. Vincenzo Verardi & Alice McCathie, 2012. "The S-estimator of multivariate location and scatter in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(2), pages 299-307, June.
    4. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John & Schuh, Scott, 1996. "Small Business and Job Creation: Dissecting the Myth and Reassessing the Facts," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 297-315, August.
    5. Vincenzo Verardi & Christophe Croux, 2009. "Robust regression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(3), pages 439-453, September.
    6. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, May.
    7. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    8. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    9. John Haltiwanger, 1997. "Measuring and analyzing aggregate fluctuations: the importance of building from microeconomic evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 55-78.
    10. Joachim Wagner, 2008. "A note on why more West than East German firms export," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 363-370, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Álvarez, Roberto & Sáez, Camila, 2014. "“Post financial crisis and exports expansion: Micro-evidence from Chilean exporters”," MPRA Paper 60637, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wagner, Joachim, 2013. "The granular nature of the great export collapse in German manufacturing industries, 2008/2009," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-21.
    2. Wagner, Joachim, 2012. "The Microstructure of the Great Export Collapse in German Manufacturing Industries, 2008/2009," IZA Discussion Papers 6393, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Wagner Joachim, 2014. "A Note on the Granular Nature of Imports in German Manufacturing Industries," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 241-252, December.
    4. Joachim Wagner, 2011. "The German Manufacturing Sector is a Granular Economy," Working Paper Series in Economics 219, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    5. Blanco-Arroyo, Omar & Ruiz-Buforn, Alba & Vidal-Tomás, David & Alfarano, Simone, 2019. "Empresas granulares y desagregación regional: un análisis del caso español [Granular firms and regional disaggregation: an analysis of the Spanish case]," MPRA Paper 93913, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2010. "Cascades in Networks and Aggregate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 16516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Abduraimova, Kumushoy, 2022. "Contagion and tail risk in complex financial networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. di Giovanni, Julian & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Rancière, Romain, 2011. "Power laws in firm size and openness to trade: Measurement and implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 42-52, September.
    9. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    10. Fernando Rubiera-Morollón & Ignacio del Rosal & Alberto Díaz-Dapena, 2015. "Can large cities explain the aggregate movements of economies? Testing the ‘granular hypothesis’ for US counties," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 109-118, July.
    11. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous firms and the micro origins of aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Research 312, National Bank of Belgium.
    12. Joachim Wagner & Yama Temouri, 2021. "Do Outliers and Unobserved Heterogeneity Explain the Exporter Productivity Premium? Evidence from France, Germany and the United Kingdom," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Joachim Wagner (ed.), MICROECONOMETRIC STUDIES OF FIRMS’ IMPORTS AND EXPORTS Advanced Methods of Analysis and Evidence from German Enterprises, chapter 13, pages 223-236, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Dewitte, Ruben, 2020. "From Heavy-Tailed Micro to Macro: on the characterization of firm-level heterogeneity and its aggregation properties," MPRA Paper 103170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ignacio Rosal, 2018. "Power laws in EU country exports," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 311-337, May.
    15. Svetlana Popova, 2019. "Idiosyncratic shocks: estimation and the impact on aggregate fluctuations," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps46, Bank of Russia.
    16. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    17. Joachim Wagner, 2012. "The German manufacturing sector is a granular economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(17), pages 1663-1665.
    18. Otto, C. & Willner, S.N. & Wenz, L. & Frieler, K. & Levermann, A., 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 232-269.
    19. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Fernholz, Ricardo T. & Koch, Christoffer, 2021. "The rise of big U.S. banks and the fall of big European banks: A statistical decomposition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exports; great export recovery; granular economy; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vardan Hovsepyan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cekthse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.