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Generating Historically-Based Stress Scenarios Using Parsimonious Factorization

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander N. Bogin

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • William M. Doerner

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

Abstract

This paper describes an empirical approach to generate plausible, historically-based interest rate shocks, which can be applied to any market environment and can readily link to movements in other key risk factors. The approach is based upon yield curve parameterization and requires a parsimonious yet flexible factorization model.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander N. Bogin & William M. Doerner, 2013. "Generating Historically-Based Stress Scenarios Using Parsimonious Factorization," FHFA Staff Working Papers 13-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency, revised Aug 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:hfa:wpaper:13-02
    DOI: 10.1108/JRF-03-2014-0036
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    2. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
    3. Tomas Björk & Bent Jesper Christensen, 1999. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348, October.
    4. Christophe Villa & Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li & Christophe Pérignon, 2008. "Representative yield curve shocks and stress testing," Post-Print hal-00797402, HAL.
    5. Christophe Villa & Francis X. Diebold, 2008. "Representative yield curve shocks and stress testing," Post-Print hal-00797406, HAL.
    6. Mixon, Scott, 2007. "The implied volatility term structure of stock index options," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 333-354, June.
    7. Biao Guo & Qian Han & Bin Zhao, 2014. "The Nelson–Siegel Model of the Term Structure of Option Implied Volatility and Volatility Components," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 788-806, August.
    8. Heynen, Ronald & Kemna, Angelien & Vorst, Ton, 1994. "Analysis of the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 31-56, March.
    9. David Durand, 1942. "Basic Yields of Corporate Bonds, 1900-1942," NBER Chapters, in: Basic Yields of Corporate Bonds, 1900-1942, pages 1-40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2059-2106 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. David Durand, 1942. "Basic Yields of Corporate Bonds, 1900-1942," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dura42-1, January.
    12. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2011. "How important is the term structure in implied volatility surface modeling? Evidence from foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 623-640, June.
    13. Fornari, Fabio, 2010. "Assessing the compensation for volatility risk implicit in interest rate derivatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 722-743, September.
    14. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander N. Bogin & Nataliya Polkovnichenko & William M. Doerner, 2015. "Additional Market Risk Shocks: Prepayment Uncertainty and Option-Adjusted Spreads," FHFA Staff Working Papers 15-03, Federal Housing Finance Agency.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    factorization; implied volatility; interest rates; market risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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