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A Macroeconometric Assessment of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis

Author

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  • Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Artur Tarassow

    (Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg))

Abstract

The Financial Instability Hypothesis associated with Hyman Minsky has profound implications for the conduct of monetary policy in modern capitalist economies. At its core is the proposition that the central bank may contribute to the financial fragility of leveraged firms in its pursuit of inflation-targeting interest rate policies. This paper develops a small macroeconomic model incorporating many of the salient features of a Minskyan economy. The imposition of the resulting theoretical restrictions in a CVAR model provides support for Minsky’s main proposition that interest rate innovations can drive a wedge between the cash-inflows of firms and their debt-servicing obligations. The paper concludes that the implementation of countercyclical capital requirements can provide monetary policymakers with additional policy instruments that can be used to cool overheated sectors without recourse to the ‘blunt instrument’ of interest rate policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Artur Tarassow, 2013. "A Macroeconometric Assessment of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201306, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:201306
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    File URL: https://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/repec/hepdoc/macppr_6_2013.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dögüs, Ilhan, 2017. "Rising wage dispersion between white-collar and blue-collar workers and market concentration: The case of the USA, 1966-2011," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 62, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    2. KORKMAZ, Özge, 2017. "Is Minsky’S Instability Hypothesis Acceptable For The Relation Between Borrowing Rate And Profitability?," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 21(1), pages 6-27.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Inflation Targeting; Financial Instability Hypothesis; Cointegrating VAR; Asset Price Cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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