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Estimating the Structural Credit Risk Model When Equity Prices Are Contaminated by Trading Noises

Author

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  • Jin-Chuan Duan

    (School of Management, University of Toronto)

  • Andras Fulop

    (School of Management, University of Toronto)

Abstract

The transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for struc- tural credit risk models developed by Duan (1994) is extended to account for the fact that observed equity prices may have been contaminated by trading noises. With the presence of trading noises, the likelihood function based on the observed equity prices can only be evaluated via some nonlinear filtering scheme. We devise a particle filtering algorithm that is practical for conducting the MLE estimation of the structural credit risk model of Merton (1974). We implement the method on the Dow Jones 30 firms and on 100 randomly selected firms, and find that ignoring trading noises can lead to significantly over-estimating the firm's asset volatility. A simulation study is then conducted to ascertain the performance of the estimation method.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin-Chuan Duan & Andras Fulop, 2005. "Estimating the Structural Credit Risk Model When Equity Prices Are Contaminated by Trading Noises," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0517, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:0517
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. András Simonovits, 2006. "Social Security Reform in the US: Lessons from Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0602, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, revised 24 Apr 2006.
    2. Georges Dionne & Sadok Laajimi & Sofiane Mejri & Madalina Petrescu, 2006. "Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies," Cahiers de recherche 0613, CIRPEE.
    3. Iván Major, 2006. "Why do (or do not) banks share customer information? A comparison of mature private credit markets and markets in transition," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0603, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, revised 24 Apr 2006.
    4. Abel Elizalde, 2006. "Credit Risk Models II: Structural Models," Working Papers wp2006_0606, CEMFI.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Particle filtering; maximum likelihood; option pricing; credit risk; simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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