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Do Fund Managers Expect Mean Averting Returns?

Author

Listed:
  • Stotz, Olaf
  • Lutje, Torben
  • Menkhoff, Lukas
  • von Nitzsch, Rudiger

Abstract

This paper finds that fund managers do not expect mean reverting returns, as suggested by theory and empirical evidence, but mean averting returns. The degree of mean aversion is positively related to preferences for non-fundamental information and loss aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Stotz, Olaf & Lutje, Torben & Menkhoff, Lukas & von Nitzsch, Rudiger, 2004. "Do Fund Managers Expect Mean Averting Returns?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-309, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-309
    as

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    File URL: http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-309.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John H. Cochrane, 1997. "Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 21(Nov), pages 3-37.
    2. Torben Lütje & Lukas Menkhoff, 2007. "What drives home bias? Evidence from fund managers' views," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 21-35.
    3. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages 501-537, October.
    4. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    6. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mean aversion; return expectations; non-fundamental information; loss aversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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