IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/halshs-04940227.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Treasure Islands, Real Jobs? Workers and Anti-Avoidance Policies in a Tax Paradise

Author

Listed:
  • Sónia Cabral

    (Banco de Portugal - Banco de Portugal)

  • Joana Garcia

    (Banco de Portugal - Banco de Portugal, Universidade No minho)

  • Raquel Miranda

    (Banco de Portugal - Banco de Portugal)

  • Susana Peralta

    (NOVA SBE - NOVA - School of Business and Economics - NOVA - Universidade Nova de Lisboa = NOVA University Lisbon)

  • João Pereira dos Santos

    (QMUL - Queen Mary University of London, ULISBOA - Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon = Université de Lisbonne)

Abstract

This paper offers the first detailed characterization of the labor market in a tax paradise and the first assessment of how a reform aimed at discouraging tax avoidance affected workers. We show that incumbents were highly educated, performed specialized tasks, and benefited from a wage gap, particularly at the top.Immediately after the reform announcement, several workers exited. Stayers experienced wage increases of around 8% and a higher probability of working for several firms simultaneously. New hires earned, on average, 30% less than incumbents, frequently on temporary contracts. The results offer insights into policies promoting economic substance in low-tax jurisdictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sónia Cabral & Joana Garcia & Raquel Miranda & Susana Peralta & João Pereira dos Santos, 2025. "Treasure Islands, Real Jobs? Workers and Anti-Avoidance Policies in a Tax Paradise," Working Papers halshs-04940227, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-04940227
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04940227v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04940227v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alstadsæter, Annette & Johannesen, Niels & Le Guern Herry, Ségal & Zucman, Gabriel, 2022. "Tax evasion and tax avoidance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    2. Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Owen Zidar, 2016. "Who Benefits from State Corporate Tax Cuts? A Local Labor Markets Approach with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2582-2624, September.
    3. Emmanuel Saez & Benjamin Schoefer & David Seim, 2019. "Payroll Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Rent Sharing: Evidence from a Young Workers' Tax Cut in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1717-1763, May.
    4. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2018. "Do Higher Corporate Taxes Reduce Wages? Micro Evidence from Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 393-418, February.
    5. Javier Garcia-Bernardo & Petr Janský & Thomas Tørsløv, 2021. "Multinational corporations and tax havens: evidence from country-by-country reporting," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(6), pages 1519-1561, December.
    6. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W Imbens & Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 1-35.
    7. Sebastian Beer & Ruud de Mooij & Li Liu, 2020. "International Corporate Tax Avoidance: A Review Of The Channels, Magnitudes, And Blind Spots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 660-688, July.
    8. Ronald B. Davies & Julien Martin & Mathieu Parenti & Farid Toubal, 2018. "Knocking on Tax Haven’s Door: Multinational Firms and Transfer Pricing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 120-134, March.
    9. David Card & Ana Rute Cardoso & Patrick Kline, 2016. "Bargaining, Sorting, and the Gender Wage Gap: Quantifying the Impact of Firms on the Relative Pay of Women," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 633-686.
    10. Carbonnier, Clément & Malgouyres, Clément & Py, Loriane & Urvoy, Camille, 2022. "Who benefits from tax incentives? The heterogeneous wage incidence of a tax credit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    11. Bilicka, Katarzyna & Qi, Yaxuan & Xing, Jing, 2022. "Real responses to anti-tax avoidance: Evidence from the UK Worldwide Debt Cap," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    12. Dharmapala, Dhammika & Riedel, Nadine, 2013. "Earnings shocks and tax-motivated income-shifting: Evidence from European multinationals," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 95-107.
    13. Buettner, Thiess & Wamser, Georg, 2013. "Internal Debt and Multinational Profit Shifting: Empirical Evidence From Firm-Level Panel Data," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 66(1), pages 63-95, March.
    14. Souillard, Baptiste, 2022. "Corporate tax cuts and firm employment: A match made in haven?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    15. Bradley Setzler & Felix Tintelnot, 2021. "The Effects of Foreign Multinationals on Workers and Firms in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1943-1991.
    16. David Card & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2022. "Wage Flexibility under Sectoral Bargaining," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 2013-2061.
    17. Anca D. Cristea & Daniel X. Nguyen, 2016. "Transfer Pricing by Multinational Firms: New Evidence from Foreign Firm Ownerships," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 170-202, August.
    18. Katarzyna Anna Bilicka, 2019. "Comparing UK Tax Returns of Foreign Multinationals to Matched Domestic Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2921-2953, August.
    19. Fuest, Clemens & Hugger, Felix & Neumeier, Florian, 2022. "Corporate profit shifting and the role of tax havens: Evidence from German country-by-country reporting data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 454-477.
    20. Mona Baraké & Neef Theresa & Paul-Emmanuel Chouc & Gabriel Zucman, 2021. "Minimizing the Minimum Tax? The Critical Effect of Substance Carve-Outs," Post-Print halshs-03323087, HAL.
    21. Matthew Cole & Robert Elliott & Joanne Lindley, 2009. "Dirty money: Is there a wage premium for working in a pollution intensive industry?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 161-180, October.
    22. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    23. Lea Cassar & Stephan Meier, 2018. "Nonmonetary Incentives and the Implications of Work as a Source of Meaning," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 215-238, Summer.
    24. Li, Qin & Ma, Mark (Shuai) & Shevlin, Terry, 2021. "The effect of tax avoidance crackdown on corporate innovation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2).
    25. Iacus, Stefano M. & King, Gary & Porro, Giuseppe, 2012. "Causal Inference without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, January.
    26. Jonathan Roth, 2022. "Pretest with Caution: Event-Study Estimates after Testing for Parallel Trends," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 305-322, September.
    27. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katarzyna Bilicka & Evgeniya Dubinina & Petr Janský, 2022. "Fiscal consequences of corporate tax avoidance," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-97, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Bilicka, Katarzyna & Scur, Daniela, 2024. "Organizational capacity and profit shifting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    3. Ruud Mooij & Li Liu, 2020. "At a Cost: The Real Effects of Transfer Pricing Regulations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 268-306, March.
    4. Annette Alstadsæter & Julie Brun Bjørkheim & Ronald B. Davies & Johannes Scheuerer, 2022. "Pennies from Haven: Wages and Profit Shifting," CESifo Working Paper Series 9590, CESifo.
    5. Garcia-Bernardo, Javier & Janský, Petr, 2024. "Profit shifting of multinational corporations worldwide," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    6. He, Fan & Zeng, Xin & Xue, Jingwen & Xu, Jianbin, 2024. "The hidden cost of corporate tax cuts: Evidence from worker health in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Ludvig Wier & Hayley Erasmus, 2023. "The Dominant Role of Large Firms in Profit Shifting," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 791-816, September.
    8. Javier Garcia-Bernardo & Petr Janský & Thomas Tørsløv, 2022. "Decomposing Multinational Corporations’ Declining Effective Tax Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 338-381, June.
    9. Valeria Merlo & Georg Wamser, 2024. "Profit-Shifting Elasticities, Channels, and the Role of Tax Havens: Evidence from Micro-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 11045, CESifo.
    10. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2018. "Do Higher Corporate Taxes Reduce Wages? Micro Evidence from Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 393-418, February.
    11. Mantian Xue & Yuwei Zhang, 2024. "Did tax treaties restrain the profit shifting of Chinese multinationals?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(3), pages 1151-1165, August.
    12. Becker, Johannes & Johannesen, Niels & Riedel, Nadine, 2020. "Taxation and the allocation of risk inside the multinational firm," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    13. Sebastian Beer & Ruud de Mooij & Li Liu, 2020. "International Corporate Tax Avoidance: A Review Of The Channels, Magnitudes, And Blind Spots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 660-688, July.
    14. Julien Martin & Mathieu Parenti & Farid Toubal, 2020. "Corporate Tax Avoidance and Industry Concentration," Working Papers ECARES 2020-29, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    15. Xue, Mantian, 2024. "Did the anti-avoidance rules curtail the profit shifting of foreign multinationals in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    16. Joana Garcia, 2024. "Multinationals and Services Imports from Havens: When Policies Stand in the Way of Tax Planning," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(4), pages 1411-1448, December.
    17. Petr Janský & Miroslav Palanský, 2019. "Estimating the scale of profit shifting and tax revenue losses related to foreign direct investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(5), pages 1048-1103, October.
    18. Alejandro Esteller-Moré & Shafik Hebous & Niels Johannesen & Katarzyna Anna Bilicka, 2018. "The Present and Future of Tax Havens / El presente y futuro de los paraísos fiscales / El present i futur dels paradisos fiscals," IEB Reports ieb_report_4_2018, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    19. Roberto Crotti, 2021. "Does Intangible Asset Intensity Increase Profit-Shifting Opportunities of Multinationals?," IHEID Working Papers 02-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    20. Dominika Langenmayr & Li Liu, 2020. "Where Does Multinational Profit Go with Territorial Taxation? Evidence from the UK," CESifo Working Paper Series 8047, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate tax avoidance; labor market; substance requirements; matched employer-employee data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-04940227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.