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Disinflation against the Environment? An application to the trade-off between seigniorage and deforestation

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  • Jean-Louis Combes

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Pascale Combes Motel

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alexandru Minea

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Patrick Villieu

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The forest still covers an important share of land area in many developing countries and represents an important source of revenue for governments. Another major contribution to government revenues comes from printing money, namely the seigniorage. Building on a simple theoretical model where governments target inflation and aim at reducing deforestation while minimising a welfare loss function, we exhibit the potential substitution effect between seigniorage and deforestation revenues. Regressions run on a panel of developing countries show that there exists a non-negligible substitution effect between seigniorage and deforestation revenues, which is, as suggested by the theoretical model, even stronger if the endogenous character of seigniorage is taken into account. Adding variables suggested by the theoretical model as well as usual control variables in deforestation equations, do not alter the main result. As a consequence, disinflation policies as recommended by the IMF, may hasten deforestation. The model is extended to address this problem, which shows that international transfers dedicated to rainforest protection may upturn the positive correlation between tighter monetary policies and deforestation and give some additional support to REDD's advocates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Louis Combes & Pascale Combes Motel & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2011. "Disinflation against the Environment? An application to the trade-off between seigniorage and deforestation," Working Papers halshs-00553134, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00553134
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00553134
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2009. "Threshold effects in monetary and fiscal policies in a growth model: Assessing the importance of the financial system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 304-319, June.
    2. Combes Motel, P. & Pirard, R. & Combes, J.-L., 2009. "A methodology to estimate impacts of domestic policies on deforestation: Compensated Successful Efforts for "avoided deforestation" (REDD)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 680-691, January.
    3. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1987. "Rules and Discretion with Noncoordinated Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(4), pages 619-630, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad JafariSamimi & Habib Ansari Samani & Younes Nademi, 2011. "Inflation and Inflation Tax in Iran: A Threshold Regression ‘Laffer Curve’ Model," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 3(3), pages 163-168.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    deforestation; Panel Data Analysis; developing countries; inflation; seigniorage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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