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Gravity, log of gravity and the "distance puzzle"

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  • Clément Bosquet

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Hervé Boulhol

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Estimations of gravity equations specified in logarithm generally conclude that the distance elasticity of trade has increased over time despite globalization. In contrast, building on Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006), this elasticity is estimated to have been stable around 0.65-0.70 since the 1960s. Moreover, although FTAs tend to cover neighboring countries, this main result is robust to different treatments of FTA effects. The main estimated change refers to the impact of colonial linkages, which has been at least halved. This paper brings also several important methodological contributions to the analysis of gravity equations, including broad support for the Poisson PML estimator.

Suggested Citation

  • Clément Bosquet & Hervé Boulhol, 2009. "Gravity, log of gravity and the "distance puzzle"," Working Papers halshs-00401386, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00401386
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00401386
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    2. Buch, Claudia M. & Kleinert, Jorn & Toubal, Farid, 2004. "The distance puzzle: on the interpretation of the distance coefficient in gravity equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 293-298, June.
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    5. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
    6. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    7. Lionel Fontagne & Soledad Zignago, 2007. "A Re-evaluation of the Impact of Regional Agreements on Trade Patterns," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 109, pages 31-51.
    8. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "A Flat World, a Level Playing Field, a Small World After All, or None of the Above? A Review of Thomas L Friedman's The World is Flat," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 83-126, March.
    9. David T Coe & Arvind Subramanian & Natalia T Tamirisa, 2007. "The Missing Globalization Puzzle: Evidence of the Declining Importance of Distance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 34-58, May.
    10. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    11. Manning, Willard G. & Mullahy, John, 2001. "Estimating log models: to transform or not to transform?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 461-494, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "What separates us? Sources of resistance to globalization," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1196-1231, November.
    2. Michel Fouquin & Jules Hugot, 2016. "Back to the Future: International Trade Costs and the Two Globalizations," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-35, August.
    3. Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2016. "The distance effects on the intensive and extensive margins of trade over time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 253-278, March.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9ji21mi9p3 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Yotov, Yoto V., 2012. "A simple solution to the distance puzzle in international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 794-798.
    6. Sapa, Agnieszka & Kryszak, Łukasz, 2021. "Processed Food Trade Of European Union Countries – The Gravity Approach," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2021(2).
    7. Sucharita Ghosh & Donald Lien & Steven Yamarik, 2017. "Does the Confucius Institute Network Impact Cultural Distance? A Panel Data Analysis of Cross-Border Flows in and out of China," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 299-323, September.
    8. Frank, Jonas, 2018. "The effect of culture on trade over time: New evidence from the GLOBE data set," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 18-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    9. Weidner, Martin & Zylkin, Thomas, 2021. "Bias and consistency in three-way gravity models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Mnasri, Ayman & Nechi, Salem, 2021. "New nonlinear estimators of the gravity equation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 192-202.
    11. Elisaveta Archanskaia & Guillaume Daudin, 2012. "Heterogeneity and the Distance Puzzle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    12. Mnasri, Ayman & Nechi, Salem, 2019. "New Approach to Estimating Gravity Models with Heteroscedasticity and Zero Trade Values," MPRA Paper 93426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Samuel Standaert & Stijn Ronsse & Benjamin Vandermarliere, 2014. "Historical trade integration: Globalization and the distance puzzle in the long 20th century," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/897, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    14. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:095 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2015. "Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 307-327.
    16. Lin, Faqin, 2013. "Are distance effects really a puzzle?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 684-689.
    17. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9ji21mi9p3 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Marlies Hanna Schütz & Nicole Palan, 2016. "Restructuring of the international clothing and textile trade network: the role of Italy and Portugal," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-29, December.
    19. Rosselló-Nadal, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, María, 2024. "Toward a smaller world. The distance puzzle and international border for tourism," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    distance puzzle; gravity equations; international trade; pseudo-maximum likelihood methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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