IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03393124.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Évaluation interdisciplinaire des impacts du CICE en matière d’emplois et de salaires

Author

Listed:
  • Clément Carbonnier

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Charlotte Foffano

    (Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Clément Malgouyres

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Loriane Py

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Camille Urvoy

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Le crédit d'impôt pour la compétitivité et l'emploi (CICE) a été institué avec l'objectif d'améliorer la compétitivité des entreprises. Pour étudier ses différents effets potentiels sur l'emploi et les salaires, l'évaluation présentée ici s'appuie d'une part sur une analyse économique, et d'autre part sur une étude sociologique, dont les résultats qualitatifs avaient été détaillés lors du rapport remis le 29 septembre 2016 par le LIEPP de Sciences Po à France Stratégie. L'analyse micro-économique basée sur les données fiscales et sociales des entreprises fait tout d'abord apparaître que, au niveau de l'emploi, les décisions des nouvelles embauches des entreprises n'ont pas été affectées par la présence de la nette discontinuité du CICE. De plus, comparativement aux entreprises moins intensément ciblées par la mesure, les entreprises les plus intensément ciblées par le CICE n'ont pas connu de hausse de l'emploi entre 2013 et 2015, et cela quelle que soit la catégorie socio-professionnelle. Concernant l'effet sur les salaires, notre analyse montre que la mesure n'a pas eu d'impact détectable sur la distribution des hausses de salaires mais il apparaît toutefois qu'au niveau de l'entreprise, les sommes allouées dans le cadre du CICE ont été en partie reversées aux salariés, sous forme de hausses de salaires, en particulier aux cadres, professions intellectuelles supérieures et professions intermédiaires. Il faut garder à l'esprit que les conclusions de cette évaluation ne portent que sur les trois premières années de mise en place du CICE, les données de 2016 et 2017 n'étant pas encore disponibles au moment de l'évaluation. Il convient enfin de préciser la difficulté de toute étude portant sur le CICE : celui-ci n'a pas été conçu de manière à être évalué par un dispositif expérimental.

Suggested Citation

  • Clément Carbonnier & Charlotte Foffano & Clément Malgouyres & Loriane Py & Camille Urvoy, 2018. "Évaluation interdisciplinaire des impacts du CICE en matière d’emplois et de salaires," Working Papers hal-03393124, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03393124
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03393124
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03393124/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Tore Olsen & Luigi Pistaferri, 2011. "Adjustment Costs, Firm Responses, and Micro vs. Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: Evidence from Danish Tax Records," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 749-804.
    2. Bas, Maria & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2017. "From micro to macro: Demand, supply, and heterogeneity in the trade elasticity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-19.
    3. Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 180-212, August.
    4. Gerald Auten & Robert Carroll, 1999. "The Effect Of Income Taxes On Household Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 681-693, November.
    5. Facundo Alvaredo & Thomas Breda & Barra Roantree & Emmanuel Saez, 2017. "Contribution Ceilings and the Incidence of Payroll Taxes," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(2), pages 129-140, June.
    6. Clément Carbonnier & Bruno Palier & Michaël Zemmour, 2016. "Tax cuts or social investment? Evaluating the opportunity cost of French employment strategy," Post-Print hal-03243483, HAL.
    7. Clément Carbonnier & Alexis Direr & Ihssane Slimani-Houti, 2014. "Do Savers Respond to Tax Incentives? The Case of Retirement Savings," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 113-114, pages 225-256.
    8. repec:adr:anecst:y:2014:i:113-114:p:11 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Clément Carbonnier & Bruno Palier & Michaël Zemmour, 2016. "Tax cuts or social investment? Evaluating the opportunity cost of French employment strategy," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03243483, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/71qdj9669e8dore9fmfi4a8m42 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/71qdj9669e8dore9fmfi4a8m42 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Clément Carbonnier & Clément Malgouyres & Loriane Py & Camille Urvoy, 2019. "Wage Incidence of a Large Corporate Tax Credit: Contrasting Employee - and Firm - Level Evidence," Working Papers hal-03393095, HAL.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4v8c8tnfgu8g392dpm6uaefuus is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Clément Carbonnier & Charlotte Foffano & Clément Malgouyres & Loriane Py & Camille Urvoy, 2018. "Évaluation interdisciplinaire des impacts du CICE en matière d’emplois et de salaires," Working Papers hal-03393124, HAL.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4v8c8tnfgu8g392dpm6uaefuus is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4ljbipbf1o9r3p7pcm99m06e3e is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Clément Carbonnier & Clément Malgouyres & Loriane Py & Camille Urvoy, 2019. "Wage Incidence of a Large Corporate Tax Credit: Contrasting Employee - and Firm - Level Evidence," Post-Print hal-03393095, HAL.
    9. Clément Carbonnier & Clément Malgouyres & Loriane Py & Camille Urvoy, 2019. "Wage Incidence of a Large Corporate Tax Credit: Contrasting Employee - and Firm - Level Evidence," Post-Print hal-03393095, HAL.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4ljbipbf1o9r3p7pcm99m06e3e is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Miguel Almunia & David Lopez-Rodriguez, 2019. "The elasticity of taxable income in Spain: 1999–2014," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 281-320, November.
    12. Fack, Gabrielle & Landais, Camille, 2016. "The effect of tax enforcement on tax elasticities: Evidence from charitable contributions in France," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 23-40.
    13. Carbonnier, Clément & Malgouyres, Clément & Py, Loriane & Urvoy, Camille, 2022. "Who benefits from tax incentives? The heterogeneous wage incidence of a tax credit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    14. Matikka, Tuomas, 2014. "Taxable Income Elasticity and the Anatomy of Behavioral Response: Evidence from Finland," Working Papers 55, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Jakobsen, Katrine Marie & Søgaard, Jakob Egholt, 2022. "Identifying behavioral responses to tax reforms: New insights and a new approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    16. Carina Neisser, 2021. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income: A Meta-Regression Analysis [The top 1% in international and historical perspective]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(640), pages 3365-3391.
    17. Nicole Bosch, 2019. "The Incidence of Pension Contributions," CPB Discussion Paper 388.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Emmanuel Saez & Joel Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 3-50, March.
    19. Stuart Adam & James Browne & David Phillips & Barra Roantree, 2021. "Frictions and taxpayer responses: evidence from bunching at personal tax thresholds," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(3), pages 612-653, June.
    20. Kumar, Anil & Liang, Che-Yuan, 2020. "Estimating taxable income responses with elasticity heterogeneity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    21. Thoresen, Thor O. & Vattø, Trine E., 2015. "Validation of the discrete choice labor supply model by methods of the new tax responsiveness literature," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 38-53.
    22. Aronsson, Thomas & Jenderny, Katharina & Lanot, Gauthier, 2022. "The quality of the estimators of the ETI," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    23. Nicole Bosch & Maja Micevska-Scharf, 2017. "Who Bears the Burden of Social Security Contributions in the Netherlands? Evidence from Dutch Administrative Data," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(2), pages 205-224, June.
    24. Nicole Bosch, 2019. "The Incidence of Pension Contributions," CPB Discussion Paper 388, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    25. Kleven, Henrik Jacobsen & Schultz, Esben Anton, 2012. "Estimating taxable income responses using Danish tax reforms," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58070, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    26. Derek Messacar, 2022. "Labor Supply Responses to Income Taxation among Older Couples: Evidence from a Canadian Reform," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 10, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03393124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.