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Who Bears the Burden of Social Security Contributions in the Netherlands? Evidence from Dutch Administrative Data

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  • Nicole Bosch

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Maja Micevska-Scharf

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

Abstract

This paper sheds light on the incidence of social security contributions (SSC) in the Netherlands. Our unique dataset on earnings inclusive and exclusive of these SSC enables us to apply the methodology by Alvaredo et al. (De Econ. doi: 10.1007/s10645-017-9294-7 , 2017) and draw clear conclusions on local incidence. First, our finding of a smooth distribution of gross earnings indicates that both employer and employee do not shift their contributions. This contradicts the standard incidence prediction of full shifting of SSC to employees but corroborates recent findings. Moreover, it is hard to reconcile with the standard static model of labour supply and demand where gross earnings are irrelevant. Second, our finding of a discontinuity in labour costs supports our conclusion of non-shifting and renders out measurement error as an alternative explanation. Overall, these findings suggest that the statutory split matters and that the burden of SSC close to thresholds is borne by employers.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicole Bosch & Maja Micevska-Scharf, 2017. "Who Bears the Burden of Social Security Contributions in the Netherlands? Evidence from Dutch Administrative Data," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(2), pages 205-224, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:165:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10645-017-9296-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10645-017-9296-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicole Bosch & Vincent Dekker & Kristina Strohmaier, 2016. "A Data-Driven Procedure to Determine the Bunching Window - An Application to the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 336, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Lehmann, Etienne & Marical, François & Rioux, Laurence, 2013. "Labor income responds differently to income-tax and payroll-tax reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 66-84.
    3. Leon Bettendorf & Arjan Lejour & Maarten ’t Riet, 2017. "Tax Bunching by Owners of Small Corporations," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(4), pages 411-438, December.
    4. Facundo Alvaredo & Thomas Breda & Barra Roantree & Emmanuel Saez, 2017. "Contribution Ceilings and the Incidence of Payroll Taxes," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(2), pages 129-140, June.
    5. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Tore Olsen & Luigi Pistaferri, 2011. "Adjustment Costs, Firm Responses, and Micro vs. Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: Evidence from Danish Tax Records," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 749-804.
    6. Nicole Bosch & Vincent Dekker & Kristina Strohmaier, 2016. "A Data-Driven Procedure to Determine the Bunching Window - An Application to the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 336.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Emmanuel Saez & Manos Matsaganis & Panos Tsakloglou, 2012. "Earnings Determination and Taxes: Evidence From a Cohort-Based Payroll Tax Reform in Greece," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 493-533.
    8. Neumann, M., 2017. "Earnings responses to social security contributions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 55-73.
    9. Dekker, Vincent & Strohmaier, Kristina & Bosch, Nicole, 2016. "A data-driven procedure to determine the bunching window: An application to the Netherlands," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 05-2016, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    10. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    11. Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 180-212, August.
    12. Leon Bettendorf & Arjan Lejour & Maarten ’t Riet, 2017. "Tax Bunching by Owners of Small Corporations," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(4), pages 411-438, December.
    13. Müller, Kai-Uwe & Neumann, Michael, 2015. "How reliable are incidence estimates based on cross-sectional distributions? Evidence from simulations and linked employer-employee data," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112920, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Leon Bettendorf & Arjan Lejour & Maarten ’t Riet, 2017. "Tax Bunching by Owners of Small Corporations," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(4), pages 411-438, December.
    2. Nicole Bosch, 2019. "The Incidence of Pension Contributions," CPB Discussion Paper 388, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Carbonnier, Clément & Malgouyres, Clément & Py, Loriane & Urvoy, Camille, 2022. "Who benefits from tax incentives? The heterogeneous wage incidence of a tax credit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    4. Nynke de Groot & Pierre Koning, 2022. "A burden too big to bear? The effect of experience‐rated disability insurance premiums on firm bankruptcies and employment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(1), pages 214-242, January.
    5. Antoine Bozio & Thomas Breda & Julien Grenet, 2017. "Incidence and Behavioural Response to Social Security Contributions: An Analysis of Kink Points in France," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(2), pages 141-163, June.
    6. Kai-Uwe Müller & Michael Neumann, 2017. "Who Bears the Burden of Social Security Contributions in Germany? Evidence from 35 Years of Administrative Data," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(2), pages 165-179, June.
    7. Clément Carbonnier & Clément Malgouyres & Loriane Py & Camille Urvoy, 2019. "Wage Incidence of a Large Corporate Tax Credit: Contrasting Employee - and Firm - Level Evidence," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03393095, HAL.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4ljbipbf1o9r3p7pcm99m06e3e is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Erich Battistin & Agar Brugiavini & Enrico Rettore & Guglielmo Weber, 2009. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2209-2226, December.
    10. Nicole Bosch, 2019. "The Incidence of Pension Contributions," CPB Discussion Paper 388.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4ljbipbf1o9r3p7pcm99m06e3e is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Clément Carbonnier & Clément Malgouyres & Loriane Py & Camille Urvoy, 2019. "Wage Incidence of a Large Corporate Tax Credit: Contrasting Employee - and Firm - Level Evidence," Post-Print hal-03393095, HAL.
    13. Facundo Alvaredo & Thomas Breda & Barra Roantree & Emmanuel Saez, 2017. "Contribution Ceilings and the Incidence of Payroll Taxes," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(2), pages 129-140, June.
    14. Nicole Bosch & Casper Ewijk & Maja Micevska Scharf & Sander Muns, 2022. "The Incidence of Pension Contributions: A Panel Based Analysis of the Impact of Pension Contributions on Labor Cost, Wages and Labor Supply," De Economist, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 107-132, February.
    15. Clément Carbonnier & Clément Malgouyres & Loriane Py & Camille Urvoy, 2019. "Wage Incidence of a Large Corporate Tax Credit: Contrasting Employee - and Firm - Level Evidence," Post-Print hal-03393095, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discontinuities; Incidence; Social security contributions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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