IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03144330.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How giant discoveries of natural resources impact sovereign debt ratings in developing and emerging countries ?

Author

Listed:
  • Regina Stéphanie Seri

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

Abstract

This paper sheds light on the effects of giant discoveries of natural resources (oil natural gas, minerals) on sovereign debt ratings in the short and long run. To do so, it employs 28 developing and emerging countries over the period 1990-2014 and applies a random effect ordered Probit model on different sets of samples. It shows evidence of the differentiated effects (positive and negative) of giant discoveries on ratings. These differentiated effects are linked to the behavior of macroeconomic and political indicators resulting from the actions and policies taken in the aftermath of the discoveries. It also finds evidence of the learning effects of giant discoveries in countries with increasing sovereign debt ratings. What seems to matter is not only the resources but also how governments respond to the news of the discovery of those resources. Therefore, taking the right actions and policies will help countries to prevent a deterioration of their financial conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Regina Stéphanie Seri, 2021. "How giant discoveries of natural resources impact sovereign debt ratings in developing and emerging countries ?," Working Papers hal-03144330, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03144330
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://uca.hal.science/hal-03144330
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://uca.hal.science/hal-03144330/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lei, Yu-Hsiang & Michaels, Guy, 2014. "Do giant oilfield discoveries fuel internal armed conflicts?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 139-157.
    2. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    3. Andreasen, Eugenia & Valenzuela, Patricio, 2016. "Financial openness, domestic financial development and credit ratings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 11-18.
    4. Marwan Elkhoury, 2007. "Credit Rating Agencies And Their Potential Impact On Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 186, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    5. Torfinn Harding & Radoslaw Stefans & Gerhard Toews, 2020. "Boom Goes the Price: Giant Resource Discoveries and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(630), pages 1715-1728.
    6. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Chang, Chong-Chuo & Yang, Shu-Ling, 2016. "The relation between sovereign credit rating revisions and economic growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 90-100.
    7. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    8. Torfinn Harding & Radoslaw Stefanski, 2016. "Boom goes the price: Giant resource discoveries and real," OxCarre Working Papers 174, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    10. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Daniel Lederman & William F. Maloney, 2007. "Natural Resources : Neither Curse nor Destiny," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7183.
      • Venables, Anthony J. & Maloney, William & Kokko, Ari & Bravo Ortega, Claudio & Lederman, Daniel & Rigobón, Roberto & De Gregorio, José & Czelusta, Jesse & Jayasuriya, Shamila A. & Blomström, Magnus & , 2007. "Natural Resources: Neither Curse nor Destiny," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 350, November.
    12. Torfinn Harding & Radoslaw Stefans & Gerhard Toews, 2020. "Boom Goes the Price: Giant Resource Discoveries and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(630), pages 1715-1728.
    13. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    14. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    15. Frederick Van Der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2017. "The Impact of Natural Resources: Survey of Recent Quantitative Evidence," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 205-216, February.
    16. Antonio Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2009. "Ordered response models for sovereign debt ratings," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 769-773.
    17. Kevin K. Tsui, 2011. "More Oil, Less Democracy: Evidence from Worldwide Crude Oil Discoveries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 89-115, March.
    18. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    19. Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1971-1985, November.
    20. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2005. "Resource Rents, Governance, and Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 625-633, August.
    21. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
    22. Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2017. "Resource discoveries and FDI bonanzas: An illustration from Mozambique," OxCarre Working Papers 199, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    23. Constantin Mellios & Eric Paget-Blanc, 2006. "Which factors determine sovereign credit ratings?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 361-377.
    24. Mahamudu Bawumia & Håvard Halland, 2017. "Oil discovery and macroeconomic management: The recent Ghanaian experience," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-185, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    25. Brock Smith & Samuel Wills, 2018. "Left in the Dark? Oil and Rural Poverty," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(4), pages 865-904.
    26. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    27. Melina, Giovanni & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Debt sustainability, public investment, and natural resources in developing countries: The DIGNAR model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 630-649.
    28. Shaukat Khan,Tehmina & Nguyen,Trang Thi Thuy & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Schodde,Richard, 2016. "From commodity discovery to production," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7823, The World Bank.
    29. Laura Jaramillo & Ms. Michelle Michelle Tejada, 2011. "Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets: Does Investment Grade Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2011/044, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Reusens, Peter & Croux, Christophe, 2017. "Sovereign credit rating determinants: A comparison before and after the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 108-121.
    31. Mahamudu Bawumia & Håvard Halland, 2017. "Oil discovery and macroeconomic management: The recent Ghanaian experience," WIDER Working Paper Series 185, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    32. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    33. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    34. Bawumia,Mahamudu & Halland,Havard, 2017. "Oil discovery and macroeconomic management : the recent Ghanaian experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8209, The World Bank.
    35. Samba Mbaye & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Kyungla Chae, 2018. "Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources," IMF Working Papers 2018/111, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
    37. Abdelwahed, Loujaina, 2020. "More oil, more or less taxes? New evidence on the impact of resource revenue on domestic tax revenue," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    38. Erdem, Orhan & Varli, Yusuf, 2014. "Understanding the sovereign credit ratings of emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 42-57.
    39. Teixeira, João C.A. & Silva, Francisco J.F. & Ferreira, Manuel B.S. & Vieira, José A.C., 2018. "Sovereign credit rating determinants under financial crises," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-13.
    40. Emma Hooper, 2015. "Oil and Gas, which is the Belle of the Ball ? The Impact of Oil and Gas Reserves on Sovereign Risk," Working Papers halshs-01211506, HAL.
    41. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    42. Emma Hooper, 2015. "Oil and Gas, which is the Belle of the Ball ? The Impact of Oil and Gas Reserves on Sovereign Risk," AMSE Working Papers 1540, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 02 Oct 2015.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Regina Stéphanie Seri, 2021. "How giant discoveries of natural resources impact sovereign debt ratings in developing and emerging countries ?," CERDI Working papers hal-03144330, HAL.
    2. Chiroleu-Assouline, Mireille & Fodha, Mouez & Kirat, Yassine, 2020. "Carbon curse in developed countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Mihalyi, David, 2020. "The Long Road to First Oil," MPRA Paper 103725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Edouard Mien & Michaël Goujon, 2022. "40 Years of Dutch Disease Literature: Lessons for Developing Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(3), pages 351-383, September.
    5. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.
    6. James Cust & Torfinn Harding & Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2019. "Dutch Disease Resistance: Evidence from Indonesian Firms," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1205-1237.
    7. Teixeira, João C.A. & Silva, Francisco J.F. & Ferreira, Manuel B.S. & Vieira, José A.C., 2018. "Sovereign credit rating determinants under financial crises," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-13.
    8. Perez-Sebastian, Fidel & Raveh, Ohad & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2021. "Oil discoveries and protectionism: Role of news effects," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    9. Adrien Desroziers & Yassine Kirat & Arsham Reisinezhad, 2023. "Carbon curse: As you extract, so you will burn," Working Papers 2023.09, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    10. Choy, Swee Yew & Chit, Myint Moe & Teo, Wing Leong, 2021. "Sovereign credit ratings: Discovering unorthodox factors and variables," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    11. Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2021. "The Oil Nouveau-Riche and Arms Imports," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 30(4), pages 349-369.
    12. Arsham Reisinezhad, 2024. "The Dutch disease revisited: consistency of theory and evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(3), pages 553-603, March.
    13. Rick Van der Ploeg & Fidel Perez-Sebastian & Ohad Raveh, 2019. "Oil Discoveries and Protectionism," Economics Series Working Papers 895, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Beck, Thorsten & Poelhekke, Steven, 2023. "Follow the money: Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Dachraoui, Hajer & Sebri, Maamar, 2021. "Natural resource rents and economic growth in the top resource-abundant countries: A PMG estimation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Macro policy responses to natural resource windfalls and the crash in commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 263-282.
    17. Pelzl, Paul & Poelhekke, Steven, 2021. "Good mine, bad mine: Natural resource heterogeneity and Dutch disease in Indonesia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    18. Mamo, Nemera & Bhattacharyya, Sambit & Moradi, Alexander, 2019. "Intensive and extensive margins of mining and development: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-49.
    19. Athari, Seyed Alireza & Kondoz, Mehmet & Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2021. "Dependency between sovereign credit ratings and economic risk: Insight from Balkan countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    20. Cust,James Frederick & Mihalyi,David, 2017. "Evidence for a presource curse ? oil discoveries, elevated expectations, and growth disappointments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8140, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Giant discoveries; Natural resources; Sovereign debt ratings; Developing countries; Random effect ordered response models;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03144330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.