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A Macro-Finance Model of Government Bonds Yields in Vietnam

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  • Ly Dai Hung

    (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)

Abstract

We characterize a macro-finance model of government bonds yields in Vietnam. The evidence is based on a time-varying structural vector autoregression (TVC-VAR) model with a monthly sample from 02/2012 to 10/2018. The bonds yields serve as effective indicators for the macroeconomic variables. For the two-month horizon of forecasting, the model tends to forecast the inflation more effectively than the economic growth and exchange rate's change. Moreover, the macroeconomic fundamentals also drive the bonds yields curve: the output growth move closely with the long-run value of curve, the depreciation rate of domestic currency is consistent with the medium-run of curve, and the inflation rate goes in line with the short-run of curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "A Macro-Finance Model of Government Bonds Yields in Vietnam," Working Papers hal-03133807, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03133807
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03133807
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "Public Safe Assets Determination," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 350-368, October.
    2. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "Output-inflation Trade-off in the Presence of Foreign Capital: Evidence for Vietnam," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(2), pages 179-192, December.
    3. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2015. "Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2838-2881, September.
    4. Emmanuel Farhi & Matteo Maggiori, 2018. "A Model of the International Monetary System," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 295-355.
    5. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Konstantin Milbradt, 2019. "A Model of Safe Asset Determination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1230-1262, April.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2019. "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 279-293, May.
    7. Dieppe, Alistair & van Roye, Björn & Legrand, Romain, 2016. "The BEAR toolbox," Working Paper Series 1934, European Central Bank.
    8. Ly Dai Hung & Hoan Nguyen Thi Thuy, 2020. "International capital flows in club of convergence," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(8), pages 1401-1420, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government Bonds; Vector Autoregression; Macro-Finance;
    All these keywords.

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