IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03133807.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Macro-Finance Model of Government Bonds Yields in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Ly Dai Hung

    (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)

Abstract

We characterize a macro-finance model of government bonds yields in Vietnam. The evidence is based on a time-varying structural vector autoregression (TVC-VAR) model with a monthly sample from 02/2012 to 10/2018. The bonds yields serve as effective indicators for the macroeconomic variables. For the two-month horizon of forecasting, the model tends to forecast the inflation more effectively than the economic growth and exchange rate's change. Moreover, the macroeconomic fundamentals also drive the bonds yields curve: the output growth move closely with the long-run value of curve, the depreciation rate of domestic currency is consistent with the medium-run of curve, and the inflation rate goes in line with the short-run of curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "A Macro-Finance Model of Government Bonds Yields in Vietnam," Working Papers hal-03133807, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03133807
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03133807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03133807/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "Public Safe Assets Determination," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 350-368, October.
    2. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2015. "Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2838-2881, September.
    3. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "Output-inflation Trade-off in the Presence of Foreign Capital: Evidence for Vietnam," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(2), pages 179-192, December.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2019. "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 279-293, May.
    5. Emmanuel Farhi & Matteo Maggiori, 2018. "A Model of the International Monetary System," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 295-355.
    6. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Konstantin Milbradt, 2019. "A Model of Safe Asset Determination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1230-1262, April.
    7. Dieppe, Alistair & van Roye, Björn & Legrand, Romain, 2016. "The BEAR toolbox," Working Paper Series 1934, European Central Bank.
    8. Ly Dai Hung & Hoan Nguyen Thi Thuy, 2020. "International capital flows in club of convergence," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(8), pages 1401-1420, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "External Debts and Economic Growth when Debt Rating Matters," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "International Public Capital Flows," Working Papers hal-03090656, HAL.
    3. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "Economic Growth with Public and Foreign Investment in Vietnam," Working Papers hal-03241846, HAL.
    4. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Zhengyang Jiang, 2024. "Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View," CESifo Working Paper Series 11279, CESifo.
    6. Matteo Maggiori & Brent Neiman & Jesse Schreger, 2019. "The Rise of the Dollar and Fall of the Euro as International Currencies," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 521-526, May.
    7. Gerding, Felix & Hartley, Jonathan S., 2024. "De-dollarization? Not so fast," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    8. Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "Economic Growth and Inflation Tradeoffs within Global Stagflation: Evidence in Vietnam Economy," Working Papers hal-03774248, HAL.
    9. Jiang, Zhengyang, 2021. "US Fiscal cycle and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 91-106.
    10. Le Grand, François & Ragot, Xavier, 2021. "Sovereign default and liquidity: The case for a world safe asset," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    11. Tao Liu & Dong Lu & Liang Wang, 2023. "Hegemony or Harmony? A Unified Framework for the International Monetary System," Working Papers 202305, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    12. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey & Maxime Sauzet, 2019. "The International Monetary and Financial System," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 859-893, August.
    13. Jiang, Zhengyang & Richmond, Robert J., 2023. "Origins of international factor structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 1-26.
    14. Ly Dai Hung & Nguyen Thi Thuy Hoan, 2022. "International Capital Flows When Safe Assets Scarcity Matters," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 11(2), pages 151-167, December.
    15. Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "Exchange Rate Risk Premium in Vietnam," Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Malaya & Malaysian Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 301-315, December.
    16. Christopher Clayton & Amanda Dos Santos & Matteo Maggiori & Jesse Schreger, 2022. "Internationalizing Like China," NBER Working Papers 30336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2022. "The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 581-625.
    18. Ly Dai Hung & Bui Thi Hai Anh & Vo Tri Thanh, 2022. "International Debts Flows," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-22, June.
    19. Gita Gopinath & Jeremy C Stein, 2021. "Banking, Trade, and the Making of a Dominant Currency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 783-830.
    20. Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "External Debts and Trade Balance: An International Evidence," Working Papers hal-03863192, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government Bonds; Vector Autoregression; Macro-Finance;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03133807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.