IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-01534319.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Agreement and disagreement between expectations and realizations

Author

Listed:
  • Marie-Claude Pichery

    (LATEC - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Techniques Economiques [URA 342] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to measure the intensity of the relation between expectations and realizations for strategic variables of firms, such as production, demand or prices. An anticipation error reveals a disagreement which can be associated with the rational expectations hypothesis. The agreement coefficient between classifications, given by COHEN (1968) and LIGHT (1971) and calculated from a probability matrix, is used to define a direct measure of the disagreement between classifications. Comparison of the coefficients is used to test the rational expectations hypothesis. The coefficients are applied to business survey data of INSEE for France between 1974 and 1986.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie-Claude Pichery, 1990. "Agreement and disagreement between expectations and realizations," Working Papers hal-01534319, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01534319
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01534319v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01534319v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gourieroux, Christian & Pradel, Jacqueline, 1986. "Direct test of the rational expectation hypothesis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 265-284, April.
    2. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-1279, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lucia Modugno, 2024. "Evaluating Qualitative Expectational Data on Investments from Business Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(1), pages 59-88, August.
    2. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
    3. Sergey Tsukhlo, 2010. "Methodological Basis for Organization and Analytical Capacity of Business Surveys in Russian Industry," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 145P.
    4. Jürgen Bierbaumer & Werner Hölzl, 2015. "Business Cycle Dynamics and Firm Heterogeneity. Evidence for Austria Using Survey Data," WIFO Working Papers 504, WIFO.
    5. Das, J.W.M. & Dominitz, J. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1997. "Comparing Predictions and Outcomes : Theory and Application to Income Changes," Other publications TiSEM 6eef11dd-0ae4-4673-b8c0-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 219-276, June.
    7. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
    8. John F. McDonald, 1985. "Expectations and Urban Housing Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 22(6), pages 543-549, December.
    9. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Zorn, Peter, 2020. "What drives aggregate investment? Evidence from German survey data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Domptail, Stéphanie & Nuppenau, Ernst-August, 2010. "The role of uncertainty and expectations in modeling (range)land use strategies: An application of dynamic optimization modeling with recursion," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2475-2485, October.
    11. Lena Boneva & James Cloyne & Martin Weale & Tomasz Wieladek, 2020. "Firms' Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(627), pages 555-586.
    12. Hugo Oliveros C., 1999. "Expectativas:Una Aproximación A Través De Modelos De Escogencia Discreta," Borradores de Economia 2697, Banco de la Republica.
    13. BAUWENS, Luc & GINSBURGH, Victor, 2000. "Art experts and auctions are pre-sale estimates unbiased and fully informative?," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1485, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    14. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2005. "Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm‐Level Survey Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 479-499, July.
    15. Sarah Brown & Mark N. Harris & Christopher Spencer & Karl Taylor, 2024. "Financial Expectations and Household Consumption: Does Middle‐Inflation Matter?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 741-768, June.
    16. Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2007. "The Rationality and Reliability of Expectations Reported by British Households: Micro Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 287, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    17. Triebs, Thomas & Tumlinson, Justin, 2014. "Learning Capitalism The Hard Way: Evidence From Germany's Reunification," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100457, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier & Gaillac, Christophe & Maurel, Arnaud, 2018. "Rationalizing Rational Expectations? Tests and Deviations," IZA Discussion Papers 11989, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Tegene, Abebayehu, 1983. "A rational expectations approach to the modelling of agricultural supply: a case study of Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800009963, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    20. Tomas Philipson & John Cawley, 1999. "An Empirical Examination of Information Barriers to Trade in Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 827-846, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01534319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.