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Agreement and disagreement between expectations and realizations

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  • Marie-Claude Pichery

    (LATEC - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Techniques Economiques [URA 342] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to measure the intensity of the relation between expectations and realizations for strategic variables of firms, such as production, demand or prices. An anticipation error reveals a disagreement which can be associated with the rational expectations hypothesis. The agreement coefficient between classifications, given by COHEN (1968) and LIGHT (1971) and calculated from a probability matrix, is used to define a direct measure of the disagreement between classifications. Comparison of the coefficients is used to test the rational expectations hypothesis. The coefficients are applied to business survey data of INSEE for France between 1974 and 1986.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie-Claude Pichery, 1990. "Agreement and disagreement between expectations and realizations," Working Papers hal-01534319, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01534319
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01534319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gourieroux, Christian & Pradel, Jacqueline, 1986. "Direct test of the rational expectation hypothesis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 265-284, April.
    2. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-1279, September.
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