IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-03627437.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Towards the end of deflation in Japan ?

Author

Listed:
  • Mahito Uchida

    (IAO - Institut d'Asie Orientale - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

In this paper, I investigate the Bank of Japan's monetary policy effects under Abenomics at the initial stage. First, I describe briefly what is "Abenomics" and "New monetary policy under Abenomics" since April 2013. I also examine the causes of the sharp response of the yen and Japanese stock prices, the increase of consumer price index and the change of the public's expectations for economic activity and prices on surveys. In the second part I explain why the new monetary policy was effective in 2013, comparing the previous policy until 2012. Although there is not so big difference between monetary policies before and after 2012 theoretically, I point out the importance of the strong commitment by central bank, the cooperation with the government and "psychological impact" on public. The third part discusses the durability of the new monetary policy. The policy effects will be sustainable if a price becomes lastingly positive, which needs a durably positive output gap. Therefore, growth strategy by Abenomics plays an important role. I also point out that the BOJ has to perform the policy over side effects such as the impact on the government bond markets, the impact on other financial market and an outflow of money to overseas.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahito Uchida, 2014. "Towards the end of deflation in Japan ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03627437, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03627437
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.135.0243
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03627437
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03627437/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3917/reof.135.0243?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kazuo Ueda, 2005. "The Bank of Japan's Struggle with the Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Exercises in Expectations Management," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 329-350, August.
    2. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 131-1997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Amel Falah & Sabine Le Bayon & Hervé Péléraux & Christine Rifflart & Xavier Timbeau & Catherine Mathieu & Mathieu Plane, 2014. "Le piège de la déflation," Post-Print hal-01093020, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7fp8n6moep83p9otmhc28tapl4 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2010. "Size and Composition of the Central Bank Balance Sheet: Revisiting Japan's Experience of the Quantitative Easing Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 28, pages 79-106, November.
    3. Mahito Uchida, 2014. "Towards the end of deflation in Japan ?," Post-Print hal-03627437, HAL.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7fp8n6moep83p9otmhc28tapl4 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2015. "Banking, Liquidity, and Bank Runs in an Infinite Horizon Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(7), pages 2011-2043, July.
    6. Girardin, Eric & Moussa, Zakaria, 2011. "Quantitative easing works: Lessons from the unique experience in Japan 2001â2006," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 461-495, October.
    7. Hanisch, Max, 2017. "The effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from a structural dynamic factor model for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 110-134.
    8. Kazuo Ueda, 2009. "Non-Traditional Monetary Polices: G7 Central Banks during 2007-2009 and the Bank of Japan during 1998-2006," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-692, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    9. Moussa, Zakaria, 2010. "The Japanese Quantitative Easing Policy under Scrutiny: A Time-Varying Parameter Factor-Augmented VAR Model," MPRA Paper 29429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gunther Schnabl & Christian Danne, 2005. "The Changing Role of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate for Japanese Monetary Policy," International Finance 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Thomas F. Cargill & Federico Guerrero, 2007. "Japan's Deflation: A Time‐Inconsistent Policy in Need of an Inflation Target," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 115-130, July.
    12. Campbell Leith & Eric Leeper, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," Working Papers 2016_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    13. Kazuo Ueda, 2007. "Trying to Make Sense of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy sinse the Exit from Quantitative Easing ( Published in "International Finance", Winter 2007, Vol. 10, No.3, 301-16. )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-114, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    14. Christina D. Romer, 2014. "It Takes a Regime Shift: Recent Developments in Japanese Monetary Policy through the Lens of the Great Depression," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 383-400.
    15. Masahiko Shibamoto & Wataru Takahashi & Takashi Kamihigashi, 2023. "Japan’s monetary policy: a literature review and empirical assessment," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 1215-1254, October.
    16. Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Looking into the Rear-View Mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    17. Hyeongwoo Kim & Liliana Stern & Michael Stern, 2009. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the G7 stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 347-355.
    18. Illing, Gerhard & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2018. "Credit booms, debt overhang and secular stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 78-104.
    19. Gerhard Illing & Yoshiyasu Ono & Matthias Schlegl, 2016. "Asset Prices and Leverage in a Model of Persistent Stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 0988, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    20. Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Satoshi Ikeda, 2016. "Stock Market Responses Under Quantitative Easing: State Dependence and Transparency in Monetary Policy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 560-580, December.
    21. Ettore Dorrucci & Gabor Pula & Daniel Santabárbara, 2013. "China’s economic growth and rebalancing," Occasional Papers 1301, Banco de España.
    22. Beechey, Meredith & Hjalmarsson, Erik & sterholm, Pr, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 934-943, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03627437. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.