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Crise financière, inflation et Currency Board en Bulgarie : les leçons d'une transition indisciplinée

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  • Jérôme Sgard

    (CERI - Centre de recherches internationales (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The Bulgarian transition since 1991 was marked by two huge "financial pyramids" which erupted into the 1996-1997 crisis. From January to September 1996, there was an open banking panic, followed by a fiscal and public debt crisis due to ever rising interest payments, the sudden drop in the real value of tax revenues, and widespread expectations that the country would default on its foreign debt. This led to a quasi- hyperinflation in January and February 1997, followed by a remarkably fast stabilization. These different phases are analyzed, including from a political economy viewpoint; an assessment is then made of the Currency Board set up on July,l 1997. Attention is drawn to the importance of quantitative and expectational factors, which mark this period as "monetarist", in contrast with the inertia of inflation in Latin America, for example, where individual and collective mechanisms of defence against inflation are much stronger. This situation is evidence that the Bulgarian economy has weak social and institutional underpinnings, a situation typical of the undisciplined transitions in the Balkans and former USSR.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Sgard, 1999. "Crise financière, inflation et Currency Board en Bulgarie : les leçons d'une transition indisciplinée," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03585877, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03585877
    DOI: 10.3406/receo.1999.2979
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03585877
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