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La crise sur un plateau. Perspectives 2013-2014

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  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Selon les promoteurs de la rigueur à marche forcée, l'amélioration du climat conjoncturel dans la zone euro illustrerait les premiers bénéfices de la stratégie de consolidation budgétaire telle qu'elle a été conduite depuis 2010. C'est négliger l'effet multiplicateur très négatif de la rigueur sur l'activité, la généralisation des ajustements qui a accentué l'effet récessif de ces choix de politique économique et le mauvais calibrage de l'effort imposé aux pays qui a étouffé la reprise naissante en 2010 et empêché la résorption de la partie conjoncturelle des déficits. On peut plutôt voir dans l'embellie de la conjoncture en zone euro la conséquence des arrangements institutionnels qui ont permis de contenir la crise des dettes souveraines et qui ont consisté à faire endosser le risque de détention de dette souveraine par des tiers via une forme de mutualisation. La zone euro sera enlisée dans la faible croissance d'ici à 2015 et ne pourra guère compter sur le dynamisme vacillant de ses partenaires extérieurs, les États-Unis et les pays émergents.

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  • Xavier Timbeau, 2013. "La crise sur un plateau. Perspectives 2013-2014," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03460759, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03460759
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03460759
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    Keywords

    Crise financière; Zone euro;

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