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The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption

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  • Charles Goodhart

    (Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics)

Abstract

A central bank’s forecast must contain some assumption about the future path for its own policy-determined short-term interest rate. I discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three main alternatives: (i) constant from the latest level (ii) as implicitly predicted from the yield curve (iii) chosen by the monetary policy committee (MPC) Most countries initially chose alternative (i). With many central banks having planned to raise interest rates at a measured pace in the years 2004–06, there was a shift to (ii). However, Norway, and now Sweden, has followed New Zealand in adopting (iii), and the United Kingdom has also considered this move. So this is a lively issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Goodhart, 2009. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 85-108, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:2:a:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Vincent Touzé, 2013. "Politiques monétaires : est-ce le début de la fin ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01072109, HAL.
    3. Ansgar Belke, 2010. "Financial Crisis, Global Liquidity and Monetary Exit Strategies," Ruhr Economic Papers 0183, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Malte Knüppel & Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2017. "Interest rate assumptions and predictive accuracy of central bank forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-215, August.
    5. Belke, Ansgar, 2010. "Financial Crisis, Global Liquidity and Monetary Exit Strategies," Ruhr Economic Papers 183, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2009. "Looking forward: Exiting unconventional monetary policy," Kiel Policy Brief 13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Xavier Timbeau, 2013. "La crise sur un plateau. Perspectives 2013-2014," Post-Print hal-03460759, HAL.
    8. Nikola Mirkov & Gisle James Natvik, 2016. "Announcements of Interest Rate Forecasts: Do Policymakers Stick to Them?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 901-920, August.
    9. Martin Nordström, 2020. "A forecast evaluation of the Riksbank's policy‐rate projections," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 49(3), September.
    10. Clemens J. M. Kool & Daniel L. Thornton, 2015. "How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(4), pages 303-322.
    11. Monica Jain & Christopher S. Sutherland, 2020. "How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 179-218, October.
    12. Christian Bustamante & Luis E. Rojas, 2012. "Constant-Interest-Rate Projections and Its Indicator Properties," Borradores de Economia 696, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh & Luba Petersen, 2017. "Coordinating expectations through central bank projections," Discussion Papers dp17-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
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    15. Peter Tulip & Stephanie Wallace, 2012. "Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    16. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Für eine zukunftsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2017/18 [Towards a Forward-Looking Economic Policy. Annual Report 2017/18]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201718, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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