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Une analyse empirique du lien entre investissement public et privé

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Creel

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paul Hubert

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Francesco Saraceno

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Nous étudions la relation entre investissement public et investissement privé non-résidentiel. Au niveau théorique, l'investissement public peut avoir deux effets contradictoires sur l'investissement privé : un effet d'éviction et un effet d'entraînement. À l'aide de différents modèles empiriques linéaires, appliqués à quatre pays de l'OCDE, nous cherchons à séparer ces deux effets. Nous étudions notamment un modèle VAR dans lequel l'investissement privé, la croissance du PIB et le taux d'intérêt interagissent et sont influencés par l'investissement public et la dette publique, entre autres. Nous vérifions dans quelle mesure la relation entre investissement public et privé varie au cours du temps et dépend du contexte macroéconomique. En outre, nous étudions les effets de débordement internationaux de l'investissement public. En France, l'effet d'entraînement semble l'emporter sur l'effet d'éviction tandis qu'aux États-Unis, un effet d'éviction, certes assez faible, émerge. Aucun résultat robuste ne ressort des données allemandes et britanniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno, 2015. "Une analyse empirique du lien entre investissement public et privé," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459568, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03459568
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.144.0331
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03459568
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    Cited by:

    1. Honoré S. Houngbedji & Nassibou Bassongui, 2021. "Investissement Public et Investissement Privé en Afrique Subsaharienne: Rôle de la Qualité Institutionnelle," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(3), pages 466-478, September.
    2. Mathilde Le Moigne & Francesco Saraceno & Sébastien Villemot, 2016. "Probably Too Little, Certainly Too Late. An Assessment of the Juncker Investment Plan," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459360, HAL.
    3. Rasmané Ouédraogo & Hamidou Sawadogo & Relwendé Sawadogo, 2019. "Impact of Public Investment on Private Investment in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Crowding In or Crowding Out?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(3), pages 318-334, September.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2a4lft86ed8kqpphgfkgrdfrk1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2a4lft86ed8kqpphgfkgrdfrk1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pierre GUEI, 2024. "Effect of Public Investment on Private Investment in Côte d’Ivoire: A Long-Term Analysis," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(7), pages 3402-3411, July.

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