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L’immatérielle richesse des nations

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Mélonio

    (AFD - Agence française de développement)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Le capital humain joue un rôle croissant dans les économies modernes, incitant les nations à y consacrer une part croissante de leur PIB. Les dépenses publiques d'éducation constituent pour les États un investissement, puisqu'elles sont sources, à terme, de croissance économique et de recettes fiscales. L'investissement public en éducation devrait donc donner lieu à la constitution d'un actif. Ce n'est aujourd'hui pas le cas. Cet article tente d'y remédier et propose deux méthodes d'évaluation du capital éducatif français depuis les années 1970. La première approche s'inspire de la comptabilité traditionnelle des entreprises : l'actif éducatif est valorisé en fonction du coût de sa constitution, et se déprécie au cours du temps. La seconde méthode assimile l'État à un optimisateur fiscal et valorise le capital éducatif par les flux futurs anticipés de recettes fiscales. Dans les deux cas, nous constatons une forte augmentation du capital éducatif français depuis le début des années 1970, d'environ 60 points de PIB, pour culminer autour de 140 points de PIB au début des années 2000. Ceci s'explique avant tout par la progression du niveau des diplômes, mais aussi par l'accroissement de la taille moyenne des cohortes. En projection, nous estimons que ce stock a atteint un plafond, et devrait progresser modestement dans les vingt prochaines années avant de décliner sous l'effet du rétrécissement de la taille des cohortes et de la stagnation observée du niveau des diplômes.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Mélonio & Xavier Timbeau, 2006. "L’immatérielle richesse des nations," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459167, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03459167
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.097.0329
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03459167
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillaume Allègre & Thomas Melonio & Xavier Timbeau, 2012. "Dépenses publiques d'éducation et inégalités. Une perspective de cycle de vie," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(6), pages 1055-1079.
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    4. Xavier Timbeau, 2011. "Solidarité intergénérationnelle et dette publique," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 191-212.
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hi4j70a29 is not listed on IDEAS
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    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61kh4poj is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hi4j70a29 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Céline Antonin & Thomas Melonio & Xavier Timbeau, 2012. "L'epargne nette ré-ajustée," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 259-286.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hi4j70a29 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h84a0it2m is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital humain; Évaluation; Capital éducatif;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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