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France et Allemagne : une histoire du désajustement européen

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Ragot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathilde Le Moigne

    (ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

Abstract

La divergence économique entre la France et l'Allemagne depuis 1993 est impressionnante. Alors que les deux pays étaient dans des situations comparables à la fin des années 1990, l'Allemagne est aujourd'hui au voisinage du plein emploi - en dépit d'inégalités en hausse - et est un des pays les plus exportateurs du monde. La France connait un chômage historique et voit ses performances commerciales se dégrader continûment. Plusieurs explications à cette divergence ont été proposées. Cet article quantifie la contribution particulière de la modération salariale allemande débutant outre-Rhin au milieu des années 1990 sur l'écart de performances économiques franco-allemand. En effet, les salaires allemands sont restés extraordinairement stables après la réunification allemande, et ce essentiellement dans les services. À l'aide d'un modèle quantitatif de commerce international, nous trouvons que la modération salariale allemande est responsable de l'ordre de la moitié de l'écart de performances à l'exportation de la France par rapport à l'Allemagne, et explique environ 2% du taux de chômage français. Le problème de l'offre en France est essentiellement l le résultat du désajustement européen.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Ragot & Mathilde Le Moigne, 2015. "France et Allemagne : une histoire du désajustement européen," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01167180, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01167180
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01167180v2
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    Cited by:

    1. Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE Working Papers hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," Post-Print hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," Working Papers hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03612850, HAL.
    2. Thomas Grebel & Mauro Napoletano & Lionel Nesta, 2023. "Distant but Close in Sight: Firm‐level Evidence on French–German Productivity Gaps in Manufacturing," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(1), pages 228-261, March.
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5vh68vsbm9akb9r0rkcdi4tmi is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Thomas Grebel & Mauro Napoletano & Lionel Nesta, 2022. "Distant but Close in Sight: Firm‐level Evidence on French–German Productivity Gaps in Manufacturing," Post-Print hal-04531123, HAL.
    5. Xavier Ragot & Ricardo Pinois, 2019. "Public debt and the world financial market," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 165-189.
    6. Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Le retour de l’économie keynésienne," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(1), pages 173-186.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4di9av1cud81urnl29tar56o5s is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5vh68vsbm9akb9r0rkcdi4tmi is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Philippe Frocrain & Pierre-Noël Giraud, 2017. "The evolution of tradable and non-tradable employment: evidence from France," Working Papers hal-01695159, HAL.
    10. Xavier Timbeau & Signe Dahl & Georg Feigl & Xavier Timbeau & Xavier Timbeau & Andrew Watt, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery. Independent Annual Growth Survey (iAGS) 2017," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 164, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3pv2em81ob86bp54ak8dq2e0a1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4di9av1cud81urnl29tar56o5s is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Le retour de l’économie keynésienne," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(1), pages 173-186.
    14. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2019. "The Euro at 20: a critical assessment," Post-Print hal-03403622, HAL.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3pv2em81ob86bp54ak8dq2e0a1 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2019. "The Euro at 20: a critical assessment," Post-Print hal-03403622, HAL.
    17. Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Le retour de l'économie keynésienne," Post-Print hal-03459474, HAL.

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