IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/psewpa/halshs-04289291.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Minimum Wages and Contract Duration in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • David Margolis

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics)

  • Victor Saldarriaga

    (The University of Edinburgh)

Abstract

We assess the effect of the introduction of a minimum wage policy of 8.50 EUR/hour in Germany in January 2015 on the probability of transitioning from fixed-term to open-ended contracts. Utilizing administrative data from social security records, we compare ex-ante affected (i.e., those earning below the minimum wage) workers against unaffected ones during the pre-implementation period, and find a significant decline in the probability that ex-ante affected workers employed under fixed-term contracts transition to open-ended contracts as the ending month of their fixed-term contract approaches January 2015, when the minimum wage policy was enforced. We interpret our empirical results through the lens of a job search model where firms use fixed-term contracts as a probation phase to learn about the matchspecific productivity with a given worker. In this model, firms sign open-ended contracts based on a productivity threshold rule. A sufficiently high minimum wage can push this threshold up, thus reducing the probability at which workers transition from fixed-term to open-ended contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • David Margolis & Victor Saldarriaga, 2023. "Minimum Wages and Contract Duration in Germany," PSE Working Papers halshs-04289291, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04289291
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04289291v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04289291v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Decio Coviello & Erika Deserranno & Nicola Persico, 2022. "Minimum Wage and Individual Worker Productivity: Evidence from a Large US Retailer," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(9), pages 2315-2360.
    2. Jeffrey Clemens, 2021. "How Do Firms Respond to Minimum Wage Increases? Understanding the Relevance of Non-employment Margins," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    3. Anne Beeson Royalty, 2000. "Do Minimum Wage Increases Lower the Probability that Low-Skilled Workers Will Receive Fringe Benefits?," JCPR Working Papers 172, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    4. Diego Daruich & Sabrina Di Addario & Raffaele Saggio, 2023. "The Effects of Partial Employment Protection Reforms: Evidence from Italy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2880-2942.
    5. David S. Lee, 1999. "Wage Inequality in the United States During the 1980s: Rising Dispersion or Falling Minimum Wage?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(3), pages 977-1023.
    6. Jeffrey Clemens & Lisa B. Kahn & Jonathan Meer, 2021. "Dropouts Need Not Apply? The Minimum Wage and Skill Upgrading," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S1), pages 107-149.
    7. Thomas MaCurdy, 2015. "How Effective Is the Minimum Wage at Supporting the Poor?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(2), pages 497-545.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2425, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    2. Francesco Devicienti & Bernardo Fanfani, 2025. "Firms' margins of adjustment to wage growth: the case of Italian collective bargaining," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(365), pages 107-149, January.
    3. Link, Sebastian, 2024. "The price and employment response of firms to the introduction of minimum wages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    4. Kunaschk, Max, 2024. "The effects of minimum wages on employment and prices—Evidence from the hairdressing sector," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Liu, Qing & Lu, Ruosi & Teng Sun, Stephen & Zhang, Meng, 2024. "Unintended workplace safety consequences of minimum wages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    6. Matthew T. Gustafson & Jason D. Kotter, 2023. "Higher Minimum Wages Reduce Capital Expenditures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2933-2953, May.
    7. Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2022. "When the minimum wage really bites hard: The negative spillover effect on high-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    8. Alzate, David & Carranza, Eliana & Duran-Franch, Joana & Packard, Truman & Proffen, Celina, 2024. "How Regulations Impact the Labor Market: A Review of the Literatures on Product and Labor Market Regulations," IZA Discussion Papers 17536, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Michael R. Strain, 2021. "An Argument Against The $15 Minimum Wage," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 1289-1297, September.
    10. Dami'an Vergara, 2022. "Minimum Wages and Optimal Redistribution," Papers 2202.00839, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    11. Clemens, Jeffrey, 2024. "Minimum Wage Hikes Bring Tradeoffs beyond Pay and Jobs," MPRA Paper 121748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kim, Ji Hwan & Lee, Jungmin & Lee, Kyungho, 2023. "Minimum wage, social insurance mandate, and working hours," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    13. Radhakrishnan Gopalan & Barton H. Hamilton & Ankit Kalda & David Sovich, 2021. "State Minimum Wages, Employment, and Wage Spillovers: Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(3), pages 673-707.
    14. Birca Alic, 2024. "Minimum Wage - A Determininant Of Ensuring Sustainable Employment In The Republic Of Moldova," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 132-141, August.
    15. Hill, Seth J, 2023. "Minimum Wages and Homelessness," OSF Preprints z2fqj, Center for Open Science.
    16. Hill, Seth J, 2023. "Minimum Wages and Homelessness," OSF Preprints z2fqj_v1, Center for Open Science.
    17. Marchingiglio, Riccardo & Poyker, Mikhail, 2024. "The Economics of Gender-Specific Minimum Wage Legislation," IZA Discussion Papers 17016, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Jeffrey Clemens & Michael R. Strain, 2023. "How important are minimum wage increases in increasing the wages of minimum wage workers?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 594-612, October.
    19. Otto Lenhart, 2020. "Pathways Between Minimum Wages and Health: The Roles of Health Insurance, Health Care Access and Health Care Utilization," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 438-459, June.
    20. Elodie Andrieu & Malgorzata Kuczera, 2023. "Minimum Wage and Skills -Evidence from Job Vacancy Data," Working Papers 034, The Productivity Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04289291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.