IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/psewpa/hal-00811923.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ambiguity, Pessimism, Optimism and Financial Crises in a Simple Global Game Model

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Laskar

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We use a non-Bayesian approach to uncertainty which allows for both optimism and pessimism in a simple global game, where each signal can exhibit a bias which is ambiguous. We underline a symmetry between two models of financial crises: a liquidity crisis model, and a currency crisis model. We show that one model with pessimism becomes similar to the other model with optimism, and vice versa, which leads ambiguity to have opposite effects in the two models. We can also rationalize non-neutral effects of shifts in "market sentiment" in these models.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Laskar, 2013. "Ambiguity, Pessimism, Optimism and Financial Crises in a Simple Global Game Model," PSE Working Papers hal-00811923, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:hal-00811923
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://pjse.hal.science/hal-00811923
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pjse.hal.science/hal-00811923/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Charles Rochet & Xavier Vives, 2004. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort: Was Bagehot Right After All?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1116-1147, December.
    2. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September.
    3. Jürgen Eichberger & David Kelsey, 2014. "Optimism And Pessimism In Games," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(2), pages 483-505, May.
    4. Prati, Alessandro & Sbracia, Massimo, 2010. "Uncertainty and currency crises: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 668-681, September.
    5. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    6. Chateauneuf, Alain & Eichberger, Jurgen & Grant, Simon, 2007. "Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: Neo-additive capacities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 538-567, November.
    7. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
    8. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 2004. "Coordination risk and the price of debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 133-153, February.
    9. Daniel Laskar, 2012. "Ambiguity and Coordination in a Global. Game Model of Financial Crises," PSE Working Papers halshs-00749500, HAL.
    10. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-597, June.
    11. Daniel Laskar, 2012. "Ambiguity and Coordination in a Global. Game Model of Financial Crises," Working Papers halshs-00749500, HAL.
    12. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    13. Itay Goldstein & Ady Pauzner, 2005. "Demand–Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1293-1327, June.
    14. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    15. Cheli, Bruno & Della Posta, Pompeo, 2007. "Self-fulfilling currency attacks with biased signals," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 381-396.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laskar, Daniel, 2014. "Ambiguity and perceived coordination in a global game," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 317-320.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Laskar, 2013. "Ambiguity, Pessimism, Optimism and Financial Crises in a Simple Global Game Model," Working Papers hal-00811923, HAL.
    2. Laskar, Daniel, 2014. "Ambiguity and perceived coordination in a global game," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 317-320.
    3. Naqvi, Hassan, 2015. "Banking crises and the lender of last resort: How crucial is the role of information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 20-29.
    4. Xavier Vives, 2014. "Strategic Complementarity, Fragility, and Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(12), pages 3547-3592.
    5. Toni Ahnert & Christoph Bertsch, 2022. "A Wake-Up Call Theory of Contagion [Asymmetric business cycles: theory and time-series evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 829-854.
    6. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    7. Zhang, Jinqing & He, Liang & An, Yunbi, 2020. "Measuring banks’ liquidity risk: An option-pricing approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    8. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Dynamic Debt Runs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(6), pages 1799-1843.
    9. Campos, Rodolfo G., 2013. "Risk-sharing and crises. Global games of regime change with endogenous wealth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(4), pages 1624-1658.
    10. Iachan, Felipe S. & Nenov, Plamen T., 2015. "Information quality and crises in regime-change games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 739-768.
    11. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena & Goldstein, Itay & Leonello, Agnese, 2018. "Government guarantees and financial stability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 518-557.
    12. Toni Ahnert & Ali Kakhbod, 2017. "Information Choice and Amplification of Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 2130-2178.
    13. Lucian A. Bebchuk & Itay Goldstein, 2011. "Self-fulfilling Credit Market Freezes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3519-3555.
    14. Daniel Laskar, 2012. "Ambiguity and Coordination in a Global. Game Model of Financial Crises," PSE Working Papers halshs-00749500, HAL.
    15. Daniel Laskar, 2012. "Ambiguity and Coordination in a Global. Game Model of Financial Crises," Working Papers halshs-00749500, HAL.
    16. Pereira, Ana Elisa, 2021. "Rollover risk and stress test credibility," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 370-399.
    17. Takashi Ui, 2023. "Strategic Ambiguity in Global Games," Papers 2303.12263, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    18. Chanelle Duley & Prasanna Gai, 2020. "When the penny doesn't drop - Macroeconomic tail risk and currency crises," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 520, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    19. Chen, Qi & Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Wei, 2010. "Payoff complementarities and financial fragility: Evidence from mutual fund outflows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 239-262, August.
    20. Kasahara, Tetsuya, 2009. "Coordination failure among multiple lenders and the role and effects of public policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 183-198, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Persistence; Global game; Financial crises; Ambiguity; Optimism; Pessimism; Market sentiment ; Coordination;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:hal-00811923. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.