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COVID-19 Pandemic and Financial Contagion

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  • Julien Chevallier

    (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis)

Abstract

The original contribution of this paper is to empirically document the contagion of the Covid-19 on financial markets. We merge databases from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Center, Oxford-Man Institute Realized Library, NYU Volatility Lab, and St-Louis Federal Reserve Board. We deploy three types of models throughout our experiments: (i) the Susceptible-Infective-Removed (SIR) that predicts the infections' peak on 2020-03-27; (ii) volatility (GARCH), correlation (DCC), and risk-management (Value-at-Risk (VaR)) models that relate how bears painted Wall Street red; and, (iii) data-science trees algorithms with forward prunning, mosaic plots, and Pythagorean forests that crunch the data on confirmed, deaths, and recovered Covid-19 cases and then tie them to high-frequency data for 31 stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Chevallier, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Financial Contagion," Post-Print halshs-04250255, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04250255
    DOI: 10.3390/jrfm13120309
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    Cited by:

    1. Prelorentzos, Arsenios-Georgios N. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Xidonas, Panos & Goutte, Stephane & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2024. "Introducing the GVAR-GARCH model: Evidence from financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Lin, Weinan & Ouyang, Ruolan & Zhang, Xuan & Zhuang, Chengkai, 2023. "Network analysis of international financial markets contagion based on volatility indexes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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