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Demographic growth, Harrodian (in)stability and the supermultiplier

Author

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  • Olivier Allain

    (UPD5 Droit - Université Paris Descartes - Faculté de droit - UPD5 - Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

A basic Kaleckian model is enriched by three simple, intuitive assumptions. First, there is a redistributive system of the wage bill between employed and unemployed workers, the latter receiving subsistence income. Second, only individuals with an income above the subsistence level build savings. The combination of these two assumptions gives rise to an autonomous consumption component whose rate of growth depends on population growth. Consequently, the rate of capital accumulation spontaneously converges towards the rate of population growth (the supermultiplier effect), a dynamic that offers a solution to one of the two Harrodian instability problems. The third assumption corresponds to entrepreneurs' attempts to adjust investments to restore the normal rate of capacity utilisation. Although this assumption usually generates knife-edge instability, we show here that the stabilising properties of the supermultiplier, provided that the accelerator effect is not overly strong, help overcome this instability and realise the normal rate of capacity utilisation. Therefore, the model may offer a simple, simultaneous solution to the two Harrodian instability problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Allain, 2019. "Demographic growth, Harrodian (in)stability and the supermultiplier," Post-Print halshs-02372975, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02372975
    DOI: 10.1093/cje/bex082
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    Cited by:

    1. Nomaler, Önder & Spinola, Danilo & Verspagen, Bart, 2021. "R&D-based economic growth in a supermultiplier model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Peter Skott, 2019. "Autonomous demand, Harrodian instability and the supply side," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 233-246, May.
    3. Santiago José Gahn & Alejandro González, 2022. "On the empirical content of the convergence debate: Cross‐country evidence on growth and capacity utilisation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 825-855, July.
    4. Eckhard Hein, 2019. "Harrodian instability in Kaleckian models and Steindlian solutions," FMM Working Paper 46-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Eckhard Hein & Ryan Woodgate, 2021. "Stability issues in Kaleckian models driven by autonomous demand growth—Harrodian instability and debt dynamics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 388-404, May.
    6. Steven M Fazzari & Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2020. "Demand-led growth and accommodating supply," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 583-605.
    7. Gahn, Santiago José, 2021. "On the adjustment of capacity utilisation to aggregate demand: Revisiting an old Sraffian critique to the Neo-Kaleckian model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 325-360.
    8. Nomaler, Önder & Spinola, Danilo & Verspagen, Bart, 2020. "Schumpeter and Keynes: Economic growth in a super-multiplier model," MERIT Working Papers 2020-049, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Lídia Brochier & Antonio Carlos, 2019. "A supermultiplier Stock-Flow Consistent model: the “return” of the paradoxes of thrift and costs in the long run?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(2), pages 413-442.
    10. Takashi Ohno, 2022. "Capital-labor conflict in the Harrodian model," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 301-317, April.
    11. Paulo Reis Mourao & Irina Alina Popescu, 2022. "Revisiting a Macroeconomic Controversy: The Case of the Multiplier–Accelerator Effect," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-15, October.
    12. Allain, Olivier, 2022. "A supermultiplier model with two non-capacity-generating semi-autonomous demand components," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 91-103.
    13. Önder Nomaler & Danilo Spinola & Bart Verspagen, 2024. "Demand‐led industrialisation policy in a dual‐sector small open economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(3), pages 339-376, July.
    14. Peter Skott & Júlio Fernando Costa Santos & José Luís da Costa Oreiro, 2022. "Supermultipliers, ‘endogenous autonomous demand’ and functional finance," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 220-244, February.
    15. Lídia Brochier, 2020. "Conflicting‐claims and labour market concerns in a supermultiplier SFC model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 566-603, July.
    16. José A. Pérez‐Montiel & Carles Manera, 2022. "Is autonomous demand really autonomous in the United States? An asymmetric frequency‐domain Granger causality approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 78-92, February.
    17. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil & Oreiro, José, 2021. "A song of ice and fire: Competitiveness in an export-led growing economy," MPRA Paper 109821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2021. "Inequality, household debt, ageing and bubbles: A model of demand-side Secular Stagnation," IPE Working Papers 160/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

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