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Tents, Tweets, and Events: The Interplay Between Ongoing Protests and Social Media

Author

Listed:
  • Marco T. Bastos

    (UC Davis - University of California [Davis] - UC - University of California)

  • Dan Mercea

    (City University London)

  • Arthur Charpentier

    (UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Recent protests have fuelled deliberations about the extent to which social media ignites popular uprisings. In this paper we use time-series data of Twitter, Facebook, and onsite protests to assess the Granger-causality between social media streams and onsite developments at the Indignados, Occupy, and Brazilian Vinegar protests. After applying a Gaussianization procedure to the data, we found that contentious communication on Twitter and Facebook forecasted onsite protest during the Indignados and Occupy protests, with bidirectional Granger-causality between online and onsite protest in the Occupy series. Conversely, the Vinegar demonstrations presented Granger-causality between Facebook and Twitter communication, and separately between protestors and injuries/arrests onsite. We conclude that the effective forecasting of protest activity likely varies across different instances of political unrest.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco T. Bastos & Dan Mercea & Arthur Charpentier, 2015. "Tents, Tweets, and Events: The Interplay Between Ongoing Protests and Social Media," Post-Print halshs-01241882, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01241882
    DOI: 10.1111/jcom.12145
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alekh Gour & Shikha Aggarwal & Subodha Kumar, 2022. "Lending ears to unheard voices: An empirical analysis of user‐generated content on social media," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(6), pages 2457-2476, June.
    2. Simplice A. Asongu & Stella-Maris I. Orim & Rexon T. Nting, 2019. "Terrorism and Social Media: Global Evidence," Journal of Global Information Technology Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 208-228, July.
    3. Pedro Ramaciotti Morales & Jean-Philippe Cointet & Caterina Froio, 2022. "Posters and protesters," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 1129-1157, November.

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