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Indeterminacy, bifurcations and unemployment fluctuations

Author

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  • Frédéric Dufourt

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Teresa Lloyd-Braga

    (FCEE - Faculdade de Ciencias Economicas e Empresariais - Universidade Católica Portuguesa [Porto], CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Leonor Modesto

    (FCEE - Faculdade de Ciencias Economicas e Empresariais - Universidade Católica Portuguesa [Porto], IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics)

Abstract

We incorporate imperfectly insured unemployment in the finance constrained economy proposed by Woodford (1986), by introducing unions and unemployment benefits financed by labor taxation. We show that this simple extension of the Woodford model changes drastically its stability conditions and local dynamics around the steady state. In fact, in contrast to related models in the literature, we find that, under constant returns to scale in production: (i) indeterminacy always prevails in the case of a unitary elasticity of substitution between capital and labor; (ii) flip and Hopf bifurcations occur for empirically credible elasticities of substitution between capital and labor, so that a rich set of dynamics may emerge at "realistic" parameters' values.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Dufourt & Teresa Lloyd-Braga & Leonor Modesto, 2008. "Indeterminacy, bifurcations and unemployment fluctuations," Post-Print halshs-00815504, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00815504
    DOI: 10.1017/S1365100508070211
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00815504
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2007. "Indeterminacy in a finance constrained unionized economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 347-364, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 2016. "Endogenous Procyclicality of Labor Productivity, Employment, Real Wages and Effort in Conditionally Heteroskedastic Sunspots Unemployment Business Cycles with Negishi-Solow Efficiency Wages," Working Papers 2016:10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Jean-Michel Grandmont, "undated". "Countercyclical Endogenous Uncertainty Shocks, Efficiency Wages and Procyclical Precautionary Labor Productivity," Working Papers 2017:25, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Nicolas End, 2021. "The Prince and Me A model of Fiscal Credibility," Working Papers halshs-03222115, HAL.
    4. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2014. "Market distortions and local indeterminacy: A general approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 216-247.
    5. Marta Aloi & Teresa Lloyd-Braga & Manuel Leite-Monteiro, 2017. "Welfare benefit reforms and employment," Discussion Papers 2017/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    6. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 2016. "Endogenous Procyclicality of Labor Productivity, Employment, Real Wages and Effort in Conditionally Heteroskedastic Sunspots Unemployment Business Cycles with Negishi-Solow Efficiency Wages," Working Papers 2016-06, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    7. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2012. "Can Taxes Stabilize the Economy in the Presence of Consumption Externalities?," IZA Discussion Papers 6876, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Olmedo, Elena, 2011. "Is there chaos in the Spanish labour market?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 44(12), pages 1045-1053.
    9. Thomas Seegmuller & Leonor Modesto & Teresa Lloyd-Braga, 2008. "Market Imperfections and Endogenous Fluctuations," 2008 Meeting Papers 739, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Nicolas Abad & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2012. "Aggregate Instability under Labor Income Taxation and Balanced-Budget Rules: Preferences Matter," AMSE Working Papers 1217, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Apr 2012.
    11. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
    12. Jean‐Michel Grandmont, 2008. "Negishi–Solow efficiency wages, unemployment insurance and dynamic deterministic indeterminacy," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(2), pages 247-272, June.
    13. Xue, Jianpo & Yip, Chong K., 2014. "Factor substitution and taxation in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 101-112.
    14. Abad, Nicolas & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2020. "The failure of stabilization policy: Balanced-budget fiscal rules in the presence of incompressible public expenditures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Leonor Modesto, 2008. "Unions, Firing Costs, and Unemployment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(3), pages 509-546, September.
    16. Elena G. Irwin, 2010. "New Directions For Urban Economic Models Of Land Use Change: Incorporating Spatial Dynamics And Heterogeneity," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 65-91, February.

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