IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00718659.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Adaptive Model-Predictive Climate Policies in a Multi-Country Setting

Author

Listed:
  • Thierry Bréchet

    (CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

  • Carmen Camacho

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vladimir M. Veliov

    (ORCOS - Institute of Mathematical Methods in Economics)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to extend the use of integrated assessment models by defining rational policies based on predictive control and adaptive behavior. The paper begins with an review of the main IAMs and their use. Then the concept of Model Predictive Nash Equilibrium (MPNE) is introduced within a general model involving heterogeneous economic agents operating in (and interfering with) a common environment. This concept captures the fact that agents do not have a perfect foresight for several ingredients of the model, including that of the environment. A version of the canonical IAM (DICE) is developed as a benchmark case. The concept of MPNE is then enhanced with adaptive learning about the environmental dynamics and the damages caused by global warming. The approach is illustrated by some numerical experiments in a two-region setting for several scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Thierry Bréchet & Carmen Camacho & Vladimir M. Veliov, 2012. "Adaptive Model-Predictive Climate Policies in a Multi-Country Setting," Post-Print halshs-00718659, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00718659
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00718659
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00718659/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fleurbaey,Marc & Maniquet,François, 2011. "A Theory of Fairness and Social Welfare," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521715348, January.
    2. Zili Yang, 2008. "Strategic Bargaining and Cooperation in Greenhouse Gas Mitigations: An Integrated Assessment Modeling Approach," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262240548, April.
    3. Bréchet, Thierry & Gerard, Francois & Tulkens, Henry, 2007. "Climate Coalitions: A Theoretical and Computational Appraisal," Coalition Theory Network Working Papers 10270, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801, January.
    5. Johan Eyckmans & Henry Tulkens, 2006. "Simulating Coalitionally Stable Burden Sharing Agreements for the Climate Change Problem," Springer Books, in: Parkash Chander & Jacques Drèze & C. Knox Lovell & Jack Mintz (ed.), Public goods, environmental externalities and fiscal competition, chapter 0, pages 218-249, Springer.
    6. Duranton, Gilles & Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Mayneris, Florian, 2010. "The Economics of Clusters: Lessons from the French Experience," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199592203.
    7. Thierry Bréchet & Carmen Camacho & Vladimir Veliov, 2014. "Model predictive control, the economy, and the issue of global warming," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 220(1), pages 25-48, September.
    8. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Bauer, Nico & Kriegler, Elmar, 2005. "The impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare: Insights from the model MIND," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2-3), pages 277-292, August.
    9. Thierry Bréchet & Yann Ménière & Pierre M. Picard, 2016. "The Clean Development Mechanism in a world carbon market," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1569-1598, November.
    10. Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro, Marzio Galeotti, Emanuele Massetti, Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "A World induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 13-38.
    11. Samwick, Andrew A., 1998. "Discount rate heterogeneity and social security reform," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 117-146, October.
    12. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    13. Lawrance, Emily C, 1991. "Poverty and the Rate of Time Preference: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(1), pages 54-77, February.
    14. William D. Nordhaus, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 686-702, September.
    15. Gaertner,Wulf & Schokkaert,Erik, 2011. "Empirical Social Choice," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107013940, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grüne, Lars & Semmler, Willi & Stieler, Marleen, 2015. "Using nonlinear model predictive control for dynamic decision problems in economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 112-133.
    2. Greiner, Alfred & Gruene, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Economic growth and the transition from non-renewable to renewable energy," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 417-439, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thierry Brechet & Henry Tulkens, 2015. "Climate Policies: A Burden, or a Gain?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(3), pages 155-170, July.
    2. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula E. Gobbi, 2015. "Fertility and Childlessness in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1852-1882, June.
    3. Nora, Vladyslav & Uno, Hiroshi, 2014. "Saddle functions and robust sets of equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 866-877.
    4. Bosetti, Valentina & Carraro, Carlo & De Cian, Enrica & Massetti, Emanuele & Tavoni, Massimo, 2013. "Incentives and stability of international climate coalitions: An integrated assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 44-56.
    5. BRECHET, Thierry & THENIE, Julien & ZEIMES, Thibaut & ZUBER, Stéphane, 2010. "The benefits of cooperation under uncertainty: the case of climate change," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2010062, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Ingmar Schumacher, 2018. "The Aggregation Dilemma In Climate Change Policy Evaluation," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Jan Siegmeier & Linus Mattauch & Max Franks & David Klenert & Anselm Schultes & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2015. "A Public Finance Perspective on Climate Policy: Six Interactions That May Enhance Welfare," Working Papers 2015.31, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Lessmann, Kai & Marschinski, Robert & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2009. "The effects of tariffs on coalition formation in a dynamic global warming game," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 641-649, May.
    9. Caulier, Jean-François & Mauleon, Ana & Vannetelbosch, Vincent, 2015. "Allocation rules for coalitional network games," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 80-88.
    10. Rogna, Marco & Vogt, Carla J., 2021. "Accounting for inequality aversion can justify the 2° C goal," Ruhr Economic Papers 925, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Kirchsteiger, Georg & Mantovani, Marco & Mauleon, Ana & Vannetelbosch, Vincent, 2016. "Limited farsightedness in network formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 97-120.
    12. Blair Fix, 2019. "The Aggregation Problem: Implications for Ecological and Biophysical Economics," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, March.
    13. Dirk Van de gaer & Joost Vandenbossche & José Luis Figueroa, 2014. "Children's Health Opportunities and Project Evaluation: Mexico's Oportunidades Program," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 282-310.
    14. Grimaud, André & Lafforgue, Gilles & Magné, Bertrand, 2007. "Innovation Markets in the Policy Appraisal of Climate Change Mitigation," IDEI Working Papers 481, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    15. Gregory Casey, 2024. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
    16. Kari Hyytiäinen & Lassi Ahlvik & Heini Ahtiainen & Janne Artell & Anni Huhtala & Kim Dahlbo, 2015. "Policy Goals for Improved Water Quality in the Baltic Sea: When do the Benefits Outweigh the Costs?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 61(2), pages 217-241, June.
    17. Mendolicchio Concetta & Paolini Dimitri & Pietra Tito, 2012. "Asymmetric Information And Overeducation," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, October.
    18. Stefan Dercon, 2014. "Climate change, green growth, and aid allocation to poor countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 30(3), pages 531-549.
    19. Claude, DASPREMONT & Rodolphe, DOS SANTOS FERREIRA & Jacques, THEPOT, 2007. "Hawks and doves in segmented markets : a formal approach to competitive aggressiveness," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007039, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    20. Dehez, Pierre & Ferey, Samuel, 2013. "How to share joint liability: A cooperative game approach," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 44-50.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Integrated assessment; adaptative behavior; learning; climate change; Estimation intégrée; comportement adaptatif; apprentissage; changement climatique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00718659. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.