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Évolution du rôle du yuan en Asie orientale : la guerre des monnaies aura-t-elle lieu ?

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Figuière

    (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2)

  • Laëtitia Guilhot

    (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2)

Abstract

Après un retour sur l'évolution de la gestion du taux de change du yuan, l'analyse montrera que si quatre scénarios sont théoriquement envisageables pour l'avenir des taux de change en Asie orientale, le yuan ne pourra y jouer explicitement un rôle clé à court et moyen terme. L'expérience chinoise d'ancrage à un panier de monnaies entre 2005 et 2008 pourrait par contre s'imposer comme référence dans les années à venir, ouvrant la voie à la constitution d'un "bloc monétaire asiatique". La création d'un Fonds monétaire asiatique en mars 2010 va renforcer cette hypothèse. Ainsi "la guerre des monnaies" peut être difficilement envisageable au sein de la zone, néanmoins les tensions récurrentes entre les États-Unis et la Chine sur les questions de la sousévaluation du yuan laissent présager ce phénomène sur une autre aire géographique.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Figuière & Laëtitia Guilhot, 2011. "Évolution du rôle du yuan en Asie orientale : la guerre des monnaies aura-t-elle lieu ?," Post-Print halshs-00697581, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00697581
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00697581
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Laëtitia Guilhot, 2015. "Le nouveau modèle de croissance de l’économie chinoise, un moyen pour relever le défi de la trappe à revenu intermédiaire ?," Post-Print halshs-01165405, HAL.

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