IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00680002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Customer Satisfaction lead to Accurate Earnings Forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-François Casta

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Olivier J. Ramond

    (DRM-Finance - DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Paul-Valentin Ngobo

    (Valorem - LOG - Laboratoire Orléanais de Gestion (1998-2011) - UO - Université d'Orléans)

Abstract

This paper examines the usefulness of customer satisfaction to analysts when preparing their earnings forecasts. We draw on theory in marketing to predict how customer satisfaction should be associated with earnings forecasts and forecast errors. We assembled a dataset of companies studied in the American Customer Satisfaction Index (University of Michigan), which also appear on the Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/B/E/S) files. By combining these sources, we were able to analyze the forecast errors of 1,875 analysts following 90 companies yielding 8,034 year-firm-analyst observations. We control for factors known to influence the earnings forecasts, such as firm profitability and risk, as well as potential unobservable factors using a Mixed-effects regression. We find that customer satisfaction has a negative association with the analysts' forecast errors because it allows analysts forecasts to be closer to the business reality. The influence of customer satisfaction varies across sectors. Specifically, we found that in the Information technology sector (i.e. Computer, the Internet Software & Services - e.g. EBay), customer satisfaction has the largest negative impact on earnings forecast errors. In sum, our findings suggest that analysts that neglect customer satisfaction information may deprive themselves of an important proxy of non-financial information, specifically in the information technology sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Casta & Olivier J. Ramond & Paul-Valentin Ngobo, 2009. "Does Customer Satisfaction lead to Accurate Earnings Forecasts?," Post-Print halshs-00680002, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00680002
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00680002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00680002/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atiase, Rk, 1985. "Predisclosure Information, Firm Capitalization, And Security Price Behavior Around Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 21-36.
    2. Parkash, Mohinder & Dhaliwal, Dan S. & Salatka, William K., 1995. "How certain firm-specific characteristics affect the accuracy and dispersion of analysts' forecasts : A latent variables approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 161-169, November.
    3. Ittner, CD & Larcker, DF, 1998. "Are nonfinancial measures leading indicators of financial performance? An analysis of customer satisfaction," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36, pages 1-35.
    4. Easton, George S & Jarrell, Sherry L, 1998. "The Effects of Total Quality Management on Corporate Performance: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(2), pages 253-307, April.
    5. Aboody, D & Lev, B, 1998. "The value relevance of intangibles: The case of software capitalization," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36, pages 161-191.
    6. Orens, Raf & Lybaert, Nadine, 2007. "Does the financial analysts' usage of non-financial information influence the analysts' forecast accuracy? Some evidence from the Belgian sell-side financial analyst," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 237-271.
    7. Mikhail, MB & Walther, BR & Willis, RH, 1997. "Do security analysts improve their performance with experience?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 131-157.
    8. García-Meca, Emma & Sánchez-Ballesta, Juan Pedro, 2006. "Influences on financial analyst forecast errors: A meta-analysis," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-52, February.
    9. Lynn Hodgkinson, 2001. "Analysts' Forecasts and the Broker Relationship," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(7&8), pages 943-961.
    10. Brown, Ld & Richardson, Gd & Schwager, Sj, 1987. "An Information Interpretation Of Financial Analyst Superiority In Forecasting Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 49-67.
    11. Jacob, J, 1997. "Discussion of do security analysts improve their performance with experience?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 159-166.
    12. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    13. Givoly, Dan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1979. "The information content of financial analysts' forecasts of earnings: Some evidence on semi-strong inefficiency," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 165-185, December.
    14. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul-Valentin Ngobo & Jean-François Casta & Olivier J. Ramond, 2012. "Is customer satisfaction a relevant metric for financial analysts?," Post-Print halshs-00680003, HAL.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3185 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. García-Meca, Emma & Sánchez-Ballesta, Juan Pedro, 2006. "Influences on financial analyst forecast errors: A meta-analysis," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-52, February.
    4. Tsang, Albert & Xiang, Yi & Yu, Li, 2023. "Cross-border regulatory cooperation and analyst forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Cowan, Arnold R. & Salotti, Valentina, 2020. "Anti-selective disclosure regulation and analyst forecast accuracy and usefulness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Yiming Hu & Thomas Lin & Siqi Li, 2008. "An examination of factors affecting Chinese financial analysts’ information comprehension, analyzing ability, and job quality," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 397-417, May.
    7. Sinha, Rajesh Kumar, 2021. "Macro disagreement and analyst forecast properties," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1).
    8. Bouteska Ahmed & Regaieg Boutheina, 2017. "The accuracy of financial analysts’ earnings forecasts and the Tunisian market reliance with time," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1345186-134, January.
    9. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    10. Byung T. Ro, 1989. "Earnings news and the firm size effect," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 177-195, September.
    11. Sean Cleary & Jonathan Jona & Gladys Lee & Joshua Shemesh, 2020. "Underlying risk preferences and analyst risk‐taking behavior," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7-8), pages 949-981, July.
    12. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    13. Theodore E. Christensen & Jennifer J. Gaver & Pamela S. Stuerke, 2005. "The Relation Between Investor Uncertainty and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements: Evidence from the Property-Casualty Insurance Industry in the USA," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1-2), pages 1-29.
    14. Ayres, Douglas & Huang, Xuerong (Sharon) & Myring, Mark, 2017. "Fair value accounting and analyst forecast accuracy," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-70.
    15. Theodore E. Christensen & Jennifer J. Gaver & Pamela S. Stuerke, 2005. "The Relation Between Investor Uncertainty and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements: Evidence from the Property‐Casualty Insurance Industry in the USA," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 1-29, January.
    16. Liu, Alfred Zhu & Schneible, Richard, 2017. "Analysts' experience and interpretation of discretionary accruals in predicting future earnings," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 88-98.
    17. Beccalli, Elena & Miller, Peter & O'Leary, Ted, 2015. "How analysts process information: technical and financial disclosures in the microprocessor industry," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60072, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Joseph P.H. Fan & Feng Guan & Zengquan Li & Yong George Yang, 2014. "Relationship Networks and Earnings Informativeness: Evidence from Corruption Cases," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(7-8), pages 831-866, September.
    19. Andersson, Patric, 2004. "How well do financial experts perform? A review of empirical research on performance of analysts, day-traders, forecasters, fund managers, investors, and stockbrokers," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2004:9, Stockholm School of Economics.
    20. David P. Weber, 2009. "Do Analysts and Investors Fully Appreciate the Implications of Book†Tax Differences for Future Earnings?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(4), pages 1175-1206, December.
    21. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00680002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.