IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00657038.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Transition to Equilibrium in International Trades

Author

Listed:
  • Gaël Giraud

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, ESCP Europe - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Paris)

  • Céline Rochon

    (Saïd Business School - University of Oxford)

Abstract

Building on Giraud & Tsomocos (2009), we develop a model of non equilibrium international trades with incomplete markets. Trades occur in continuous time, both on international and domestic markets. Traders are assumed to exhibit locally rational expectations on future prices, interest rates and exchange rates. Although currencies turn out to be non-neutral, if their stock grows sufficiently rapidly and if agents can trade assets during a sufficiently long period, the world economy converges in probability towards some interim constrained efficient state. Moreover, a random localized version of the Quantity Theory of Money holds provided the economy is not trapped in a liquidity hole. The traditional theory of comparative advantages, however, turns out to be challenged by international capital mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaël Giraud & Céline Rochon, 2010. "Transition to Equilibrium in International Trades," Post-Print halshs-00657038, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00657038
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00657038
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00657038/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darrell Duffie & Chi-Fu Huang, 2005. "Implementing Arrow-Debreu Equilibria By Continuous Trading Of Few Long-Lived Securities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 4, pages 97-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Mike, Szabolcs & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2008. "An empirical behavioral model of liquidity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 200-234, January.
    3. Gaël Giraud & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2010. "Nominal uniqueness and money non-neutrality in the limit-price exchange process," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(1), pages 303-348, October.
    4. J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
    5. Gary S. Becker, 1962. "Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Investment in Human Beings, pages 9-49, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 87-92, May.
    7. Smale, Stephen, 1976. "Exchange processes with price adjustment," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 211-226, December.
    8. Smale, Stephen, 1976. "Dynamics in General Equilibrium Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 288-294, May.
    9. Herings, P.J.J., 1995. "Static and dynamic aspects of general disequilibrium theory," Other publications TiSEM 489c698d-c257-47a3-90bd-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Duffie, Darrell & Shafer, Wayne, 1986. "Equilibrium in incomplete markets: II : Generic existence in stochastic economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 199-216, June.
    11. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2009. "Hyperbolic discounting is rational: Valuing the far future with uncertain discount rates," Levine's Working Paper Archive 814577000000000356, David K. Levine.
    12. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    13. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Mezard & Marc Potters, 2002. "Statistical properties of stock order books: empirical results and models," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0203511, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    14. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
    15. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    16. Hart, Oliver D., 1975. "On the optimality of equilibrium when the market structure is incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 418-443, December.
    17. Sandas, Patrik, 2001. "Adverse Selection and Competitive Market Making: Empirical Evidence from a Limit Order Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 705-734.
    18. John Geanakoplos, 1997. "An Introduction to General Equilibrium with Incomplete Asset Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1115, David K. Levine.
    19. Bottazzi, Jean-Marc, 1994. "Accessibility of Pareto optima by Walrasian exchange processes," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 585-603, November.
    20. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-137, February.
    21. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    22. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Mezard & Marc Potters, 2002. "Statistical properties of stock order books: empirical results and models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 251-256.
    23. Smale, S., 1976. "Global analysis and economics VI : Geometric analysis of Pareto Optima and price equilibria under classical hypotheses," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-14, March.
    24. Geanakoplos, John, 1990. "An introduction to general equilibrium with incomplete asset markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-38.
    25. Mertens, J. F., 2003. "The limit-price mechanism," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5-6), pages 433-528, July.
    26. M. Udara Peiris & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2019. "International monetary equilibrium with default," Chapters, in: Financial Regulation and Stability, chapter 10, pages 259-269, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    27. Gaël Giraud, 2004. "The limit-price exchange process," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques b04118, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    28. Jacques H. Drèze & Heracles M. Polemarchakis, 2001. "Intertemporal General Equilibrium and Monetary Theory," International Economic Association Series, in: Axel Leijonhufvud (ed.), Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy, chapter 2, pages 33-71, Palgrave Macmillan.
    29. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    30. Giraud, Gael, 2003. "Strategic market games: an introduction," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5-6), pages 355-375, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gaêl Giraud, 2007. "Walrasian non-tatonnement with incomplete and imperfectly competitive markets," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b07021, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer & Fabrizio Lillo, 2008. "How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand," Papers 0809.0822, arXiv.org.
    3. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2008. "The virtues and vices of equilibrium and the future of financial economics," Papers 0803.2996, arXiv.org.
    4. Gaël Giraud & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2010. "Nominal uniqueness and money non-neutrality in the limit-price exchange process," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(1), pages 303-348, October.
    5. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2010. "Limit Order Books," Papers 1012.0349, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    6. Gaël Giraud, 2004. "Walrasian non-tâtonnement with incomplete and imperfect markets," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques b04119, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    7. Gaël Giraud, 2004. "The limit-price exchange process," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques b04118, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    8. Daniel Fricke & Thomas Lux, 2015. "The effects of a financial transaction tax in an artificial financial market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(1), pages 119-150, April.
    9. Gaël Giraud, 2010. "Financial Crashes versus liquidity trap: the dilemma of monetary policy," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 10014, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    10. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2013. "Limit order books," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1709-1742, November.
    11. Anufriev, Mikhail & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2009. "Asset prices, traders' behavior and market design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1073-1090, May.
    12. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    13. Gaël Giraud & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2004. "Global uniqueness and money non-neutrality in a Walrasian dynamics without rational expectations," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques b04121, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    14. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    15. Gaël Giraud, 2007. "The Limit-Price Dynamics — Uniqueness, Computability and Comparative Dynamics in Competitiive Markets," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00155709, HAL.
    16. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frédéric Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: II. Agent-based models," Post-Print hal-00621059, HAL.
    17. Ehling, Paul & Heyerdahl-Larsen, Christian, 2015. "Complete and incomplete financial markets in multi-good economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 438-462.
    18. Dmitry Levando, 2012. "A Survey Of Strategic Market Games," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 57(194), pages 63-106, July - Se.
    19. Baptista, Alexandre M., 2003. "Spanning with American options," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 264-289, June.
    20. Tirelli, Mario, 2008. "Constrained inefficiency in GEI: A geometric argument," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(11), pages 1197-1214, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency; cash; liquidity; monetary policy; money; international trade; quantity theory of money; transition to equilibrium; Devise; liquidité; politique monétaire; monnaie; échanges internationaux; théorie quantitative de la monnaie; transition vers l'équilibre;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00657038. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.