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An Econometric Study of Vine Copulas

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  • Dominique Guegan

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Pierre-André Maugis

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We present a new recursive algorithm to construct vine copulas based on an underlying tree structure. This new structure is interesting to compute multivariate distributions for dependent random variables. We proove the asymptotic normality of the vine copula parameter estimator and show that all vine copula parameter estimators have comparable variance. Both results are crucial to motivate any econometrical work based on vine copulas. We provide an application of vine copulas to estimate the VaR of a portfolio, and show they offer significant improvement as compared to a benchmark estimator based on a GARCH model.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominique Guegan & Pierre-André Maugis, 2010. "An Econometric Study of Vine Copulas," Post-Print halshs-00492124, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00492124
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00492124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dominique Guegan & Pierre-André Maugis, 2008. "New prospects on vines," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08095, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Mar 2010.
    2. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Lorán Chollete & Andréas Heinen & Alfonso Valdesogo, 2009. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime-switching Copula," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 437-480, Fall.
    4. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin & Patton, Andrew J., 2004. "Simple tests for models of dependence between multiple financial time series, with applications to U.S. equity returns and exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    6. Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
    7. Fischer, Matthias J. & Köck, Christian & Schlüter, Stephan & Weigert, Florian, 2007. "Multivariate Copula Models at Work: Outperforming the desert island copula?," Discussion Papers 79/2007, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Statistics and Econometrics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Garcin & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "A novel multivariate risk measure: the Kendall VaR," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01467857, HAL.
    2. Matthieu Garcin & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "A novel multivariate risk measure: the Kendall VaR," Post-Print halshs-01467857, HAL.
    3. Chebbi, Ali & Hedhli, Amel, 2022. "Revisiting the accuracy of standard VaR methods for risk assessment: Using the Copula–EVT multidimensional approach for stock markets in the MENA region," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 430-445.
    4. Antonov I. N. & Knyazev A. G. & Lepekhin O. A., 2016. "Copula Models of the Joint Distribution of Exchange Rates," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 16(4), pages 20-38.
    5. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    6. Zhang, Bangzheng & Wei, Yu & Yu, Jiang & Lai, Xiaodong & Peng, Zhenfeng, 2014. "Forecasting VaR and ES of stock index portfolio: A Vine copula method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 416(C), pages 112-124.
    7. Bukre Yildirim Kulekci & Gulden Poyraz & Ismail Gur & Ozan Evkaya, 2023. "Dependence Analysis of the ISE100 Banking Sector Using Vine Copula," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(73-1), pages 55-81, June.
    8. Matthieu Garcin & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2017. "A novel multivariate risk measure: the Kendall VaR," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17008, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    9. Matthieu Garcin & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2017. "A novel multivariate risk measure: the Kendall VaR," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17008r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Apr 2018.

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