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Stratégie monétaire des économies émergentes : les écueils de la dollarisation

Author

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  • Jean-François Ponsot

    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Cette recherche vise à dégager les implications d'un arrangement monétaire particulier -la dollarisation officielle et intégrale- à partir de l'étude du cas équatorien. Elle montre comment la dollarisation officielle et intégrale a introduit une stabilisation monétaire artificielle et instauré deux niveaux de fragilisation : (1) une insécurité macroéconomique, en raison d'une dynamique des taux d'intérêt et du crédit défavorable aux petites et moyennes entreprises ; (2) une insécurité financière liée à l'absence théorique de marges de manoeuvre sur la gestion de la liquidité et le prêt en dernier ressort. L'évolution des prérogatives de la Banque centrale est soulignée, notamment sur la question des mécanismes imaginés par les autorités équatoriennes pour limiter l'influence de l'insécurité macroéconomique et financière. L'impact de ces deux niveaux de fragilisation sur la croissance demeure néanmoins modeste, compte tenu d'un environnement favorable à l'accumulation de pétrodollars. Tant que les recettes d'exportation de pétrole demeureront élevées, les tendances déflationnistes du régime de dollarisation seront atténuées.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Ponsot, 2005. "Stratégie monétaire des économies émergentes : les écueils de la dollarisation," Post-Print halshs-00098285, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00098285
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00098285
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claude Gnos & Louis-Philippe Rochon, 2004. "The Washington consensus and multinational banking in Latin America," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 315-331.
    2. Jean-François Ponsot, 2003. "The Obsession of Credibility : A Historical Perspective on Full Dollarization and Currency Boards," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 83-99.
    3. Demirguc-Kent, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1998. "Financial liberalization and financial fragility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1917, The World Bank.
    4. Kenneth P. Jameson, 2003. "Is It Possible to De-Dollarize? : The Case of Ecuador," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 42-60.
    5. Steve Hanke, 2003. "Money and the rule of law in ecuador," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 131-145.
    6. Jean-François Ponsot, 2015. "Currency boards," Post-Print halshs-01114814, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Léo MALHERBE, 2017. "Endogenous money: an heterodox synthesis (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA 2017-08, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monnaie; politique monétaire; prêt; banque centrale; taux d'intérêt; système financier; dollar; Equateur;
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