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On the Marginal Cost of the Duration of a Wildfire

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Belgodere

    (LISA - Lieux, Identités, eSpaces, Activités - UPP - Université Pascal Paoli - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Frédéric Allaire

    (ANGE - Numerical Analysis, Geophysics and Ecology - Inria de Paris - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - LJLL (UMR_7598) - Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité)

  • Jean-Baptiste Filippi

    (SPE - Laboratoire Sciences Pour l’Environnement - INEE-CNRS - Institut Ecologie et Environnement - CNRS Ecologie et Environnement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INSIS - CNRS - Institut des Sciences de l'Ingénierie et des Systèmes - CNRS Ingénierie - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli] - Partenaires INRAE)

  • Vivien Mallet

    (ANGE - Numerical Analysis, Geophysics and Ecology - Inria de Paris - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - LJLL (UMR_7598) - Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité)

  • Florian Guéniot

    (LISA - Lieux, Identités, eSpaces, Activités - UPP - Université Pascal Paoli - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Avoiding catastrophic wildfires is a natural rationale for fighting fires in their early stage. Beside this benefit, may a marginal decrease in the duration of smaller wildfires be worthwhile? The present article addresses this topic by estimating the marginal damage of the duration of forest fires. We perform two sets of wildfire simulations in Corsica, and estimate the damage based on the type of land use in burned areas. Results suggest that the marginal cost of the duration of fires rises by a factor of 4 during the first 400 minutes. The two reasons appear to be 1- the increase in the marginal burnt area (a physical mechanism) and 2- the increase in the value of the marginal burnt area, due to the ignition points being located in low-value places (a human mechanism). Using a conservative calibration, our results corroborate the principle of early initial attack already in use in countries with sufficient fire fighting forces, but subject to debate because of its cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Belgodere & Frédéric Allaire & Jean-Baptiste Filippi & Vivien Mallet & Florian Guéniot, 2023. "On the Marginal Cost of the Duration of a Wildfire," Post-Print hal-04256909, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04256909
    DOI: 10.1561/112.00000565
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04256909v1
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