IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04254971.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How to detect regime changes?
[Détecter les changements de régime : quelles méthodes ?]

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Boyer

    (EHESS, GIS IDA - Institut des Amériques - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Sandrine Michel

    (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Against the structurally stable equilibrium hypothesis of new classical macroeconomics, econometric research on regime shifts was once stimulated by disequilibrium theory. Regulation theory has mobilized these techniques to show how institutionalized compromises are at the origin of possible macroeconomic regularities, which may or may not have repercussions on the accumulation regime. The chapter reviews the various techniques available and discusses their relevance, then presents the main results thus obtained. They express the synergy between an institutionalist and historical approach and the econometrics of regime change. The period of intense structural transformations, evident in the 2020s, calls for a relaunch of this research program.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Boyer & Sandrine Michel, 2023. "How to detect regime changes? [Détecter les changements de régime : quelles méthodes ?]," Post-Print hal-04254971, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04254971
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-04254971v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-04254971v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Boyer, 1978. "Les salaires en longue période," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 103(1), pages 27-57.
    2. Benhmad, François, 2012. "Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1505-1514.
    3. Artus, Patrick & Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi & Laffargue, Jean-Pierre, 1993. "A disequilibrium econometric model of the French economy with two sectors and endogenous prices and investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-10, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(1), pages 97-131, June.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès & Khaled Guesmi, 2015. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion: Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis Versus Wavelet Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 575-611, December.
    4. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    5. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-68, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    6. Plassard, Romain, 2022. "Diagnosing unemployment: the dual project of the ENSAE's band," MPRA Paper 113584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
    8. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "On the link between oil price and exchange rate : A time-varying VAR parameter approach," Working Papers hal-03206684, HAL.
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Mobolaji, Hakeem, 2013. "Modeling returns and volatility transmission between oil price and US–Nigeria exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 169-176.
    10. Ma, Yiqun & Wang, Junhao, 2021. "Time-varying spillovers and dependencies between iron ore, scrap steel, carbon emission, seaborne transportation, and China's steel stock prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "GCC countries and the nexus between exchange rate and oil price: What wavelet decomposition reveals?," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 55-70.
    13. Debi P Bal & Badri N Rath, 2019. "Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India - A Reassessment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 592-604.
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati, 2013. "Oil price and exchange rates: A wavelet based analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 414-422.
    15. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2019. "The effects of oil price shocks on Asian exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-63.
    16. Lipietz Alain, 1984. "Accumulation, crises et sorties de crises. quelques réflexions méthodologiques autour de la notion de régulation," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8409, CEPREMAP.
    17. Michel Pierre Chelini & Georges Prat, 2013. "Cliométrie du modèle WS," Working Papers 2013-8, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    18. Zhao, Lu-Tao & Zheng, Zhi-Yi & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Forecasting oil inventory changes with Google trends: A hybrid wavelet decomposer and ARDL-SVR ensemble model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Ozturk, Kevser & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A view to the long-run dynamic relationship between crude oil and the major asset classes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 286-299.
    20. Suresh Kumar & Ankit Kumar & Gurcharan Singh, 2023. "Causal relationship among international crude oil, gold, exchange rate, and stock market: Fresh evidence from NARDL testing approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 47-57, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04254971. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.