Climate change impacts on health in Viet Nam, COP 26, AFD GEMMES

In this chapter, we look at the effects of climate variability on a range of tropical diseases and on general mortality. We find a strong impact of temperature on vector-borne and water-borne disease, where the incidence of infection is significantly decreased at temperatures below 15°C, but increased on the bin above 30°C for vector-borne disease. The impact is weaker on airborne diseases than the two other types. The effect of weather changes on the incidence of major diseases differs by climate region. Provinces located in the South and Southern Central Coast appear to have a higher level of sensitivity to infections at 15°C-18°C temperatures than other provinces. Regarding mortality, we find robust evidence on the positive effects of cold and heat waves on mortality. An additional day in a cold wave is estimated to increase the monthly mortality rate by 0.6%. The corresponding figure for a day in a heat wave is 0.7%. The effect of cold waves as well as heat waves tends to increase when the cold and heat waves last for a longer time. Compared with a cold wave, the effect of a heat wave on the mortality rate is more significant and of a larger magnitude. All climate change scenarios also imply an increase in the number of heat waves with a clear impact on mortality.