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Unemployment hysteresis in the English-speaking Caribbean: evidence from non-linear models

Author

Listed:
  • Alain Maurin

    (CREDDI - Centre de Recherche en Economie et en Droit du Développement Insulaire [UR7_2] - UA - Université des Antilles)

  • Sébastien Mathouraparsad

    (CREDDI - Centre de Recherche en Economie et en Droit du Développement Insulaire [UR7_2] - UA - Université des Antilles)

  • Roland Craigwell

Abstract

In the Caribbean Basin, as in many other parts of the world, unemployment, with rates between 15 and 30 percent, has become one of the major problems affecting these societies. This article highlights the specific characteristics of Caribbean unemployment, contrasting them with those observed in the industrialized and developed nations. Secondly, it summarizes the main ideas that have been proposed to explain the problem of unemployment hysteresis and discusses their appropriateness in the case of the countries under consideration. Finally, it uses the framework of threshold models and processes with nonlinearities in the mean to empirically examine the hypothesis of hysteresis. The results supported these nonlinear specifications: for Barbados, an LSTAR model is preferred while in the case of Trinidad and Tobago, an ESTAR specification is selected.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Maurin & Sébastien Mathouraparsad & Roland Craigwell, 2011. "Unemployment hysteresis in the English-speaking Caribbean: evidence from non-linear models," Post-Print hal-04014790, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04014790
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laurence Ball & Nicolás Roux & Marc Hofstetter, 2013. "Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 397-424, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2020. "Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    2. Yavuz, Nilgün Çil & Yilanci, Veli, 2012. "Testing For Nonlinearity In G7 Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 69-79, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

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