IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03794545.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

CEO overconfidence: Towards a new measure

Author

Listed:
  • Khalil Hatoum

    (PRISM Sorbonne - Pôle de recherche interdisciplinaire en sciences du management - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Labex ReFi - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Christophe Moussu

    (ESCP-EAP - ESCP-EAP - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Paris)

  • Roland Gillet

    (PRISM Sorbonne - Pôle de recherche interdisciplinaire en sciences du management - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Labex ReFi - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CEBRIG - Centre Emile Bernheim Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

Bayesian network theory is used to construct a novel probability-based measure for CEO overconfidence. This measure is estimated by studying the probabilistic correlation between CEO overconfidence and several CEO- and firm-specific determinants of overconfidence, that have been documented in the literature. Using S&P 500 firms over the period 2007–2017, we show that the established Bayesian network model has a high fitting and prediction accuracy of CEO overconfidence. This novel measure of CEO overconfidence can be used to conduct empirical studies in corporate and behavioral finance. It also provides a tool to improve decision-making in firms and corporate governance.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Khalil Hatoum & Christophe Moussu & Roland Gillet, 2022. "CEO overconfidence: Towards a new measure," Post-Print hal-03794545, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03794545
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102367
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Brian J. & Murphy, Kevin J., 2002. "Stock options for undiversified executives," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-42, February.
    2. Xavier Gabaix & Augustin Landier, 2008. "Why has CEO Pay Increased So Much?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 49-100.
    3. Malmendier, Ulrike & Tate, Geoffrey, 2008. "Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 20-43, July.
    4. Martijn Cremers & Yaniv Grinstein, 2009. "The Market for CEO Talent: Implications for CEO Compensation," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2385, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
    5. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    6. Ferris, Stephen P. & Jayaraman, Narayanan & Sabherwal, Sanjiv, 2013. "CEO Overconfidence and International Merger and Acquisition Activity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 137-164, February.
    7. Berger, Philip G & Ofek, Eli & Yermack, David L, 1997. "Managerial Entrenchment and Capital Structure Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1411-1438, September.
    8. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    9. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128, Elsevier.
    10. Pamela R. Haunschild & Alison Davis-Blake & Mark Fichman, 1994. "Managerial Overcommitment in Corporate Acquisition Processes," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 528-540, November.
    11. Hatoum, Khalil, 2021. "“Theoretical Model on CEO Overconfidence Impact on Corporate Investments”," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 545-552.
    12. Judith Chevalier & Glenn Ellison, 1999. "Are Some Mutual Fund Managers Better Than Others? Cross‐Sectional Patterns in Behavior and Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 875-899, June.
    13. Trevis Certo, S. & Connelly, Brian L. & Tihanyi, Laszlo, 2008. "Managers and their not-so rational decisions," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 113-119.
    14. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    15. Zacharias Sautner & Martin Weber, 2009. "How Do Managers Behave In Stock Option Plans? Clinical Evidence From Exercise And Survey Data," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 123-155, June.
    16. Martin Neil & Norman Fenton & Manesh Tailor, 2005. "Using Bayesian Networks to Model Expected and Unexpected Operational Losses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(4), pages 963-972, August.
    17. Renée B. Adams & Heitor Almeida & Daniel Ferreira, 2005. "Powerful CEOs and Their Impact on Corporate Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1403-1432.
    18. Brookman, Jeff & Thistle, Paul D., 2009. "CEO tenure, the risk of termination and firm value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 331-344, June.
    19. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    20. Weili GE & Dawn Matsumoto & Jenny Li Zhang, 2011. "Do CFOs Have Style? An Empirical Investigation of the Effect of Individual CFOs on Accounting Practices," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 1141-1179, December.
    21. Lin, Yueh-hsiang & Hu, Shing-yang & Chen, Ming-shen, 2005. "Managerial optimism and corporate investment: Some empirical evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 523-546, November.
    22. Sen, Rik & Tumarkin, Robert, 2015. "Stocking up: Executive optimism, option exercise, and share retention," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 399-430.
    23. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Puri, Manju, 2013. "Managerial attitudes and corporate actions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 103-121.
    24. Martijn Cremers & Yaniv Grinstein, 2009. "The Market for CEO Talent: Implications for CEO Compensation," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2385, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
    25. Brown, Rayna & Sarma, Neal, 2007. "CEO overconfidence, CEO dominance and corporate acquisitions," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 358-379.
    26. Stein, Jeremy C., 2003. "Agency, information and corporate investment," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 111-165, Elsevier.
    27. Fatma Hachicha & Sahar Charfi & Ahmed Hachicha, 2020. "New Evidence to Assess the Asset Pricing Model: An Empirical Investigation Based on Bayesian Network," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(03), pages 1-29, September.
    28. Westerberg, Mats & Singh, Jagdip & Häckner, Einar, 1997. "Does the CEO matter? An empirical study of small Swedish firms operating in turbulent environments," Scandinavian Journal of Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 251-270, September.
    29. Jing Zhang & Ya-ming Zhuang & M. Irfan Uddin, 2021. "Cross-Market Infection Research on Stock Herding Behavior Based on DGC-MSV Models and Bayesian Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-8, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gurdgiev, Constantin & Ni, Qiuxin, 2023. "Board diversity: Moderating effects of CEO overconfidence on firm financing decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ismail, Ahmad & Mavis, Christos P., 2022. "A new method for measuring CEO overconfidence: Evidence from acquisitions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Huiqi Gan, 2019. "Does CEO managerial ability matter? Evidence from corporate investment efficiency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1085-1118, May.
    4. Thi Tuyet Dao, Nhung & Guney, Yilmaz & Hudson, Robert, 2023. "Managerial overconfidence and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from primary and secondary data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Tobias Heizer & Laura R. Rettig, 2020. "Top management team optimism and its influence on firms' financing and investment decisions," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 601-622, October.
    6. Bradrania, Reza & Westerholm, P. Joakim & Yeoh, James, 2016. "Do CEOs who trade shares adopt more aggressive corporate investment strategies?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 349-366.
    7. King, Timothy & Srivastav, Abhishek & Williams, Jonathan, 2016. "What's in an education? Implications of CEO education for bank performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 287-308.
    8. Otto, Clemens A., 2014. "CEO optimism and incentive compensation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 366-404.
    9. James, Hui L. & Benson, Bradley W. & Park, Jung Chul, 2020. "CEO fixed effects and inside debt compensation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 71-86.
    10. Adams, Renée & Keloharju, Matti & Knüpfer, Samuli, 2018. "Are CEOs born leaders? Lessons from traits of a million individuals," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 392-408.
    11. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate & Jonathan Yan, 2010. "Overconfidence and Early-life Experiences: The Impact of Managerial Traits on Corporate Financial Policies," NBER Working Papers 15659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Chune Young Chung & Changhwan Choi & Amirhossein Fard, 2024. "Self‐serving attribution and managerial investment decision," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(3), pages 749-772, July.
    13. Zunxin Zheng & Donghui Li & Tingyong Zhong & Tian Wang & Ling He, 2023. "CEO facial structure and stock price crash risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(S1), pages 873-905, April.
    14. Liu, Yin & Neely, Pamela & Karim, Khondkar, 2022. "The impact of CFO gender on corporate overinvestment," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    15. Panagiotis Karavitis & Pantelis Kazakis & Tianyue Xu, 2021. "Overconfident CEOs, Corporate Social Responsibility & Tax Avoidance: Evidence from China," Working Papers 2021_18, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    16. Hwang, Hyoseok (David) & Kim, Hyun-Dong & Kim, Taeyeon, 2020. "The blind power: Power-led CEO overconfidence and M&A decision making," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Custódio, Cláudia & Metzger, Daniel, 2014. "Financial expert CEOs: CEO׳s work experience and firm׳s financial policies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 125-154.
    18. Ulrike Malmendier & Vincenzo Pezone & Hui Zheng, 2023. "Managerial Duties and Managerial Biases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3174-3201, June.
    19. Huang, Ying Sophie & Li, Mengyu, 2019. "Are overconfident executives alike? overconfident executives and compensation structure: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 434-449.
    20. Danso, Albert & Lartey, Theophilus & Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph & Adomako, Samuel & Lu, Qinye & Uddin, Moshfique, 2019. "Market sentiment and firm investment decision-making," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03794545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.